TeraWulf is doubling down on its AI infrastructure ambitions, and Wall Street is taking notice.
Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating and $36 price target on the company after the sale of its majority stake in the Abernathy joint venture and the announcement of a landmark 20-year lease agreement with AI startup Anthropic.
Taken together, the two deals mark a sharp turn in the company’s strategy as it shifts away from shared projects and instead focuses on owning and operating AI data centers itself.
The deal with Anthropic is expected to generate about $19 billion in revenue over its lifetime, one of the largest contracts signed by a company pivoting from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure.
The lease is for 401 megawatts of IT capacity at TeraWulf’s Justified Data campus in Hawesville, Ky. The economics of the deal are better than expected, Bernstein said, with the project expected to generate an average annual return of $2.4 million per IT megawatt, well above the firm’s earlier estimate of $1.9 million.
Anthropic deal boosts confidence in AI growth
The investment bank said the deal adds to confidence in TeraWulf’s ability to generate attractive long-term returns from its AI business.
Another feature that stands out is the contract length. It is one of the longest-term AI infrastructure deals ever signed by an emerging player in the space at 20 years. Most of the Bitcoin miners making the switch to AI are signing contracts for 10 to 15 years, giving TeraWulf a longer runway of predictable revenue.
The deal also includes two optional five-year extensions, which could extend the partnership to 30 years. The first capacity is expected to come online in the second half of 2027, with full build out expected by early 2028.
TeraWulf has now secured a third major AI customer in Anthropic, after previously striking deals with Core42 and Fluidstack, whose earlier project was backed by Google.
Bernstein estimates that the latest deal puts TeraWulf at about $27 billion in contracted AI revenue across some 839 megawatts of IT capacity in projects.
TeraWulf simplifies business
The company has agreed to sell its 50.1 percent stake in the Abernathy joint venture to a Fluidstack-led investor group for $530 million. Bernstein said TeraWulf has invested about $450 million in the Texas project, so the sale yields an estimated 18 percent return on investment.
Partner and anchor tenant Fluidstack founded the Abernathy venture in late 2025 to develop a 168-megawatt AI data center campus.
It said the sale proceeds will be paid in three tranches, comprising $250 million in two weeks, $150 million by end-2026 and the balance of about $130 million by April 2027, subject to adjustments.
Instead of pursuing more joint ventures, TeraWulf plans to reinvest the capital into its own AI infrastructure projects, which will give it more control over future developments and customer relationships.
Bernstein sees this as a key step in the evolution of the company’s business model. TeraWulf will focus on capturing more value from the growing need for AI computing infrastructure, rather than sharing ownership and economics with partners.
The gains from the Anthropic lease are more than offset by the loss of future income from the Abernathy joint venture. As such, Bernstein’s long-term outlook is mostly intact, but it did raise its 2030 adjusted EBITDA estimate by roughly $43 million.
The firm expects TeraWulf’s AI business to grow quickly in the future. Net AI revenue is expected to grow from $209 million in 2026 to around $1.7 billion by 2030. High-performance computing EBITDA could hit $1.5 billion over the same period, with margins stabilising around 85 percent.
Bernstein also pointed to TeraWulf’s large power portfolio, about 3.6 gigawatts across New York, Kentucky and Maryland, that it believes could support hundreds of megawatts of new AI infrastructure annually.
But the analysts did flag one key risk. Today, a large portion of TeraWulf’s contracted revenue is derived from a relatively small set of major customers, so the company will need to expand its customer base over time as its AI platform matures.
Shares of TeraWulf rose 4.9 percent to $22.21 after the announcements, reflecting investor optimism around the company’s accelerating pivot from cryptocurrency mining to AI infrastructure.
