On Friday, Bitcoin broke above the $78,000 price level for the first time in almost 3 months. The cryptocurrency’s sharp upward move from around $64,000 just a few days ago, while encouraging, is now starting to look a little overextended to most analysts. However, volume data suggests that BTC’s ongoing rally is far from over.
Bitcoin still has more upside potential
According to data received on Friday, BTC isn’t quite done yet with its current bullish move. The green color in the spot volume bubble map shared below means that the digital asset is still in the “cooling” phase. In simple words, while the price is surging, the volume growth isn’t keeping pace.
For the uninitiated, the map changes color bubbles based on the rate of change in the trading volume of the underlying asset. A rapid increase turns the bubble red, indicating heating and then overheating market conditions. In contrast, a decline changes the color to green, showing cooling conditions.
Every major cycle top on this chart – including late 2017, mid-2021, and the approximately $100,000 high in late 2025, was marked by dense red clusters. However, this time looks a little different. Even as the price pushes to $78,000, the bubbles have stayed green.
Historically, red clusters coincided with late entrants in the market and volume exploding – the classic signature of peak fear of missing out. Volume staying cool now suggests most participants haven’t committed with conviction yet.
The market is still hesitant, and real buying pressure may still be sitting on the sidelines. If that reading holds, any pullback from here is more likely to be shallow than a hard reversal.
It would also mean that there’s room for one or two more legs up before a real top forms. Without an overheating signal, this isn’t the top yet.
What’s the counter-case?
It’s not a guarantee that BTC will continue to surge upwards. On the flip-side, if volume fails to give a quick confirmation, then it would mean the current rally is leaning more on derivatives short covering and macro liquidity instead of organic spot demand.
If volume never shows up, the move risks stalling without confirmation, and slipping back into range. Cooling phases haven’t always preceded rallies – 2018 and 2023 both saw extended cooling periods that led into prolonged sideways price action instead.
