The proportion of Bitcoin that is in profit as of Thursday has plummeted all the way down to 51.4 percent, creating ripe conditions for a potential market bottom. The low reading marks a severe departure from its peak reading of almost 100 percent during the previous market high back in October 2025.
Massive drop in Bitcoin supply in profit
According to data received on Thursday, roughly 48.6 percent of held BTC is now underwater – or in other words, in loss. At the same time, BTC price continues to consolidate around the $63,400 prize zone.
In simple words, Bitcoin supply in profit measures the percentage of circulating BTC whose current price is higher than the price at which those coins last moved.
A declining reading means more Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized losses, and extremely low levels can historically coincide with periods of capitulation and potential market bottoms.
The following chart evaluates the sum of unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs, being in profit or not. It does so by comparing the price of BTC when it last moved against its current value.
The last time Bitcoin’s supply in profit hovered in this 51 percent territory, the digital asset was trading near the $16,000 to $20,000 region during the early 2023 recovery phase.
For the uninitiated, UTXO is a unit of Bitcoin that represents coins received by an address but not yet spent. Each Bitcoin transaction consumes existing UTXOs and creates new ones, which together track who can spend the coins on the network.
Lowest profitability in over 3 years
Looking at the time, the 51.4 percent reading represents the lowest level of overall BTC profitability seen in over 3 years. This level historically marks a transition from euphoria into full-blown capitulation.
Short-term holders who purchased near the upper boundary of the cycle are sitting on heavy unrealized losses, while long-term traders or “smart money” typically use these sub-55 percent profit compressions to begin re-accumulating.
The low profitability also coincides with low BTC liquidity across crypto exchanges. However, trading activity is yet to return meaningfully in the spot market.
Recent data shows that only derivatives markets are showing a resurgence, which isn’t exactly reliable enough to gauge investor interest in the top digital asset.
