Bitcoin (BTC) continues to have a tumultuous 2026, as the leading cryptocurrency gained around 4 percent over the past 24 hours – thanks to the lower-than-expected inflation reading in the U.S.
However, on-chain data reveals that the BTC short-term holder (STH) market cap has plunged below the October 2024 levels, giving bulls a sliver of hope for a reversal to the upside.
Bitcoin STH market cap falls below previous capitulation floor
According to on-chain data received on Tuesday, Bitcoin’s STH market cap has tumbled to $233.9 billion, below the $237.7 billion cycle low recorded back in October 2024. At the same time, the BTC STH realized cap remained at $260.8 billion, meaning that recent buyers collectively paid this much amount for their holdings.
The difference between the BTC STH market cap and realized cap shows that there is an aggregate unrealized loss of $26.9 billion – or about 10.3 percent – sitting on this cohort’s books. As a result, the group’s implied market value to realized value ratio is hovering around 0.90.
For the uninitiated, the MVRV ratio compares an asset’s current market value to the aggregate cost basis of its holders, helping assess whether the market is trading at a profit or a loss. An MVRV above 1 indicates that on average, holders are in profit. On the contrary, an MVRV below 1 suggests they are holding unrealized losses and may be in a capitulation phase.
The pressure is also appearing in exchange flows. On Monday, approximately 10,000 BTC held by STH was moved to Binance at a realized loss. This was the highest volume of BTC sent to the exchange since 11,800 BTC on June 26.
Amidst the negative metrics, there is one positive picture that is starting to surface. On October 4, 2024, BTC was trading around $60,800 when STH were showing similar stress signs.
However, that period coincided with a major market bottom before BTC reversed course, and created a new all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025.
The bullish read of the setup
Although the current setup does not guarantee a similar outcome, the historical bullish precedent set in October 2024 does inspire some hope among the optimists. It shows that holders with the weakest conviction have likely already exited.
Meanwhile, BTC appears to have found a strong support around the $60,000 level, failing to meaningfully break below the level despite the persistent macro headwinds.
The existing BTC setup drew commentary from those observing the premier cryptocurrency beyond just the price swings. Commenting on BTC’s recent price action, Orkun Kilic, Co-founder and CEO, Chainway Labs, remarked:
“Every time there’s a shock like this weekend’s escalation, the reflex to sell kicks in. It’s the same pattern every cycle. The price gets tested, while the fundamentals compound. Long-term holders are barely moving their coins, and this weekend’s headlines won’t change that.”
Kilic added:
“However, these movements do underline that Bitcoin can’t just sit there waiting out the next shock. It needs to transform into an asset that generates lending, settlement, and liquidity, secured by Bitcoin itself. That’s the aim with Citrea: to build through Bitcoin’s volatility.”
Kilic’s commentary aligns with the rapidly rising institutional adoption of the top cryptocurrency by reported market cap. On July 2, Japanese firm Metaplanet announced it had acquired 2,823 BTC in Q2 2026 to bolster its reserves.
