Bitcoin has shown some recovery and rose more than $5,000 since the fall from the low around $57,700 on July 1. The rally is running into familiar resistance levels. The correction from the price of $70,000 in late June made the price drop to the $63,300 area before the price lost momentum. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency is changing hands at $62,808 and has seen very little movement for the day.
While it’s a hopeful bounce, this action so far has done nothing to affect the overall context. The $63,300 level, having resisted upside movements on multiple occasions in the past month, is positioned near the mid-level of the previous downtrend from $67,248 to $57,747. Additionally, momentum measures provide no clarity. The RSI remains relatively neutral in most timeframes, and the long-term moving averages continue to rest at a comfortable distance above the price.
$63,300 is the major level being defended
Bitcoin has failed on three attempts to break through $63,300 to $64,000 since mid-June, including a move above $64,000 on July 7, which quickly retreated below $63,000, indicating seller interest still lies at the same level. Technically, price appears stuck, with price moving in between EMA7, standing at $62,590, and EMA30, which is at $63,455, as well below the 200-day MA, which is standing much higher than the current price and is resting in the $74,000 to $76,000 area, which has still tilted the long-term picture on the lower side.
The overall momentum is picking up but barely. The MACD histogram has flipped green, indicating the pressure on sellers is releasing. But the MACD line is still in the negative zone, where sellers are still in control. A break above $63,300 may have a potential trajectory toward the next Fib extension level, $69,800-$73,100. For this scenario to take place, it becomes essential to break the resistance level that repeatedly stopped the bulls.
ETF outflows needs some attention
Net outflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $84.86 million on July 8th, breaking a series of mostly inflows. That figure, despite the downturn, was still well within a period where cumulative net flows remain at greater than $51 billion, and this number is signifying the sustained institutional appetite.
The daily figures are also clearing up the current situation. The BlackRock IBIT reported outflows of $59.13 million, the biggest daily outflow seen for weeks. Grayscale’s GBTC also registered outflows of another $63.69 million, with outflows of $14.88 million recorded from Fidelity’s FBTC.
Meanwhile, Grayscale’s lower-fee BTC Mini Trust has experienced $52.83 million in inflows. This is depicting that a decent amount of GBTC outflows were from people who have switched into a cheaper product, rather than from BTC as a whole.
The real noteworthy data is IBIT’s outflow, however, and this isn’t so easily dismissed as a fund rotation. If such withdrawals continue to occur, these events could be working as a more significant warning sign about institutional appetite weakening.
The trend for the liquidation has experienced a shift
Liquidation data is also showing how quickly the sentiment has flipped during the week. For this metric, the total liquidations have touched $174.02 million in the past 24 hours. For the concentration, shorts lost $91.45 million as this largest cryptocurrency rallied from $57,700. The thing to note here is that after the rejection at $63,300, the pressure was shifted to bulls. Following this, the liquidations took over shorts in the latest 4-hour window as the buyers were caught offside.
According to the data from Coinglass, the largest liquidation amounted to a $4.65 million BTCUSDT position on Binance. At this point, the control is not shifted to either side. In the case of a break above $63,300, this digital asset can get strength-based recovery, but on the other hand, a breakdown below $59,800 will shift the control to the bears.
