Bitcoin is changing hands at $61,915 and has gone through a correction of 0.57 percent for the session, opening at $62,270 and quickly spiking a high just above $62,394 before the market bears drove it to a day low near $61,820. The fact of this price move itself is negligible in significance; instead, it is the level where the action is taking place.
As of this afternoon’s session, Bitcoin has shed that important price ceiling it used to keep the bears at bay. $63,319 was the base price that kept the June recovery solid but at this time it has officially become resistance and the largest digital asset measures itself about $1,400 below that respective level. It becomes important for the bulls to first reclaim that to recapture any short-term control of the trend.
The vulnerability is playing out amid challenging macro dynamics. U.S. military actions targeting Iranian targets resulted in Iranian missile and drone attacks on the American bases in the Gulf and an investor pivot toward safety, sparked by a feared supply disruption across the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical oil transport corridor.
Rising oil prices could leave inflation firm and push out expectations for Fed easing, a dual condition that generally tends to weigh on risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, even though it had already started to improve on the technical side in the last week.
The current technical structure of Bitcoin
However, Bitcoin’s price structure is still nicely defined, as it moved higher to around $63.3k by the middle of this month to near $67k from just over $60k at the start of the month. The momentum faded away as the bears easily retook the price to move it below this critical level towards the $58k-$59.2k support, where some buying was able to come in and launch the price back above $63.3k. This is the level where it briefly tested resistance around the $64k region.
However, being unable to get any further momentum towards the June highs, the price of this largest cryptocurrency has declined lower back down below the prior swing low and the $63,300 that supported the price for a push.
This latest move looks to be a retest of the last bounce instead of a true breakdown. Bitcoin is slowly returning toward the $59.8k support that is the only meaningful area on the chart. Holding above the $59.8k area would preserve the bounce structure intact and present the bulls with another shot at $63.3k.
In the other case, if we get a breakdown below $59.8k, it would likely see Bitcoin sink to the June lows, around the $58k level, where the price last saw solid bids. Until one or the other breaks, the bears may try to break the market down but it seems like if the geopolitical tensions take a break, we can see this digital asset rise to $67,000.
The trend remains on the weaker side but momentum depicting strength
Technical indicators keep on sending mixed signals. Bitcoin’s price is currently trading below both its 7-day and 30-day SMA indicators, as they remain close together near the $62,570 support level. The resulting small area provides the first resistance to overcome before any sustained attempt is possible to break through the next support level at $63,319. Bitcoin is still changing hands far weaker in the longer term: the 200-day SMA at $74,482 and the 200-day EMA standing at $76,195 still confirm that Bitcoin has a long path to cover.
Momentum is getting stronger but the trend still looks like it is unchanged. The MACD histogram has come back above zero, indicating a decrease in selling pressure, although the MACD line has yet to move back above zero. RSI gives us the same message; the 7-day is reading at 60.11, the 14-day at 50.34, and the 21-day at 46.22, so the buyers are gradually gaining back ground. However, this alone has not given enough bullish conviction for a confirmed upside trend.
