On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) flashed a rare signal that has the bulls feeling optimistic. The last time BTC flashed this signal, it went on an extraordinary price rally that resulted in the creation of a new all-time high in October 2025.
Bitcoin net supply ratio flashes buy signal
BTC’s net supply ratio has flashed a rare buy signal, indicating that the crypto market is now entering a phase where accumulation becomes important. Net supply ratio – also called unspent transactions output (UTXO) analysis – is showing that BTC is entering a devaluation phase.
For the uninitiated, UTXOs are a mechanism that are specific to BTC in that it ensures that a unit of the cryptocurrency has only been spent once. As a result, these UTXOs contain information such as price, dates, and amount, which enable analysts to see on-chain behavior.
The net supply ratio has now been negative for a week and recently reached a reading -0.075 – suggesting a buy signal. Notably, the last time this happened was during the 2022 bottom, right towards the end of the year.
It should be highlighted that the net supply ratio is not an indicator to identify tops and bottoms. Its purpose is to help position oneself relative to a global supply that could find itself with either large profits or larger losses.
That said, it doesn’t mean that BTC cannot go any lower. However, since the market is now showing several signs of seller exhaustion, the next phase of the market will likely show a renewal of demand.
Seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez echoed similar sentiments. In an X post on Wednesday, the analyst called the market bottom. The BTC monthly chart suggests a coordinated macro reversal setup.
The TD Sequential indicator is flashing buy signals for not only BTC, but also ETH, XRP, SOL. Historically, when multiple assets lock in concurrent monthly buy signals, it indicates seller fatigue and a high probability of a long-term market bottom.
Not all pundits are aligned
Earlier on Wednesday, a report by Talos remarked that although open interest has largely pulled back in the crypto market, order-book liquidity on exchange has thinned, which could result in outsized moves in cryptocurrencies due to the market’s inability to absorb big buy or sell orders.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Jelle shared on Tuesday that Bitcoin is now nearing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level that has historically preceded multiple market bottoms. Similarly, there are elevated chances of BTC further declining as the long trade gets overcrowded.
