As Bitcoin (BTC) remains flat over the past month – trading slightly above $64,000 as of Monday – the cryptocurrency’s key miner indicator is showing signs that the market is slowly undergoing maturation, with its lows becoming successively shallower.
Bitcoin miner indicator shows bullish signs
According to mining data received on Monday, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple – a critical indicator that compares BTC miners’ current earnings compared to the average earning over the past year – created its cycle low of 0.53, which is now its highest cycle bottom on record.
As of Monday, the Puell Multiple is hovering around 0.84, meaning that the BTC miner incomes are well below the normal levels. To understand the depth of the metric, it’s important to go through its history.
For instance, in December 2018, the Puell Multiple was around 0.28, while in July 2022, it rose slightly to 0.35. Later, in September 2024, it increased further to 0.49, while it surged to 0.53 in June 2026.
While a low Puell Multiple is often called a bottom indicator, there’s more to it than meets the eye.
Since 2013, readings below 0.65 brought a median 180-day gain of nearly 55 percent, about twice a random entry number of 28 percent, with drawdowns capped around 30-40 percent versus the 60-70 percent of deep bear market readings.
What makes the indicator so important is its size, not its probability. Only 57 to 67 percent of those episodes ended higher after 180 days, barely above Bitcoin’s 63 percent baseline. July 2022 shows the signal can still fail.
All in all, it means that BTC market bottoms are becoming shallower with time, and the four-year cycle factor is no longer the cause, since the metric scales both sides of its ratio, so cutting new supply cancels out.
The real reason behind the shallower bottoms is that the BTC price is falling less each cycle – 83 percent in 2018, 22 percent in 2022, and even less since then.
Data points to bottom already hit
While there is still some speculation whether BTC has hit its bottom for the current market cycle, the cryptocurrency has recently shown several data points that suggest that a bottom is near. On Thursday, BTC flashed an on-chain signal usually flashed near market bottoms.
From a technical standpoint, it appears that selling pressure on BTC may also be finally coming to a standstill. That said, not everyone is aligned, as CryptoQuant on July 9 said that BTC is yet to show any meaningful signs of a bullish trend reversal.
