HYPE has shown some recovery and almost covered its entire range in one session. The asset is up 11 percent on the day, with a 24-hour volume of $2.13 billion. At the time of writing, the Vol/Mkt Cap (24h) value is standing at 11.3 percent. A wide, violent candle carried the price through the low 60s back to the edge of its highs.
The part which does not line up
The indicators still describe the pullback. MACD shows a figure of 2.07 against a 2.57 signal line, which is crossing lower still; the histogram shows the negative 0.50 now. RSI14 is at 58. On a day with a nearly 11 percent run higher and a new high made, nothing has been confirmed above.
It is simply the calculation that is still lagging behind a pull that is finished. The candle ran far away from the averages they are supposed to follow. RSI7 at 62 indicates that pressure is more centered on the last few candles, whereas the metric for RSI14 shows a sustained grind higher to 58.
What the moves has done so far
The price had seen a plunge down from the $75 level toward the $57 mark and that was followed up by the aggressive move up. That $57 level was not just a random level where the price reacted. The midpoint retracement of the previous $41.39-$75.52 leg stands at $58.45, and the 61.8 percent mark at $54.43.
Price had dipped to the middle of that range, and the buyers decided to take it on the chin as they guarded that level. This range is where the pullback typically gets loaded up or falls off the table. The bulls made their action and are getting the reward for the same.
The question about resistance is still in the pending phase
That level was the prior high. Today, at the time of writing, the price pushed through $76.99, then slipped back to $73.82 with most of an hour remaining left on the candle closing. The reclaim is still holding strong but is still looking unsigned.
A daily close where it holds above $75.52 shifts this dip into a higher low and will make the opportunity to target the 127.2 percent extension at $84.81, or even $96.62 above it if the momentum keeps building. A close that maintains the upper wick positioned, with price fading back just below the level into the close, is going to demonstrate to the market participants that the highs got sold and that the rebound ran out of those who took it exactly where it was important.
Positioning is the real thing
Shorts that leaned in at the levels close to the $57 low were just blown up, and it is this trapping action that is the scenario that helps the price to stabilize at $75.52. The stops above the prior high are the real fuel, and thin liquidity boosts the move further.
But in the other case, if the price reverses, late longs from this 11 percent pop on a market that already got faded away. If we drop from the current price, then $66.27 should be the first level that is expected to be tested to build a base. Below that, the $54-$58 area comes into play again, followed by $50.995; that is, the marked old range has been defended as the border with the new range all year. All these points carry their own segment of the trapped positioning.
The $74 price has already risen above the short-term averages that are still hovering around $60 or so. Price will only reconcile with the average in two ways: price will hold flat long enough for the averages to rise, or price will retreat to meet them.
The MACD cross is signaling that the second option will likely play out, but this signal occurred during the sharp decline so is weaker now that price has already rebounded. It is too late for that part. The higher degree trends don’t care about that. They have already determined that $43 is the 200 day average and $22 is the annual floor (but that is not relevant considering the current levels). This will be another debate about the range boundaries at $75.52 this week but the confirmed thing is that the trend is already determined.
