Galaxy Digital’s research head, Alex Thorn, just dropped the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75 percent down to 60 percent. In a recent note to clients, he pointed out that a packed Senate calendar, the failed Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) reauthorization vote, and some lingering ethics issues are making it a much steeper climb for the crypto bill.
A calendar crunch
Thorn’s note wasn’t about the bill’s merits. The CLARITY Act cleared the committee with a strong 15-9 bipartisan vote. The problem is time. The Senate just lost a week to the anti-weaponization fund debate. Then the FISA reauthorization vote failed, consuming next week’s floor time. To this point, Thorn argues the bill must pass both chambers before the August recess at the end of July. After that, midterm election dynamics make fall passage unlikely. “The timing matters a lot now,” he wrote, “and odds could shift wildly as the calendar progresses.”
Why Thorn sent this note to clients
Thorn is one of crypto’s most respected policy analysts. His clients (institutions, funds, and traders) rely on his probability models to position accordingly. For example, in May, he flagged the Senate calendar as the biggest hurdle. That picture has worsened. No headlines emerged this week about paths forward on outstanding issues like ethics rules or illicit finance provisions.
Thorn expects two Republican no votes (Hawley and Paul), meaning the bill needs at least nine Democrats on the floor. Without a credible floor commitment from leadership in the next two to three weeks, the path narrows significantly.
What’s with the Senate calendar?
The Senate’s schedule is a brutal game of Tetris. Each major bill takes days of floor time. The FISA reauthorization failure means senators will spend next week on that instead of crypto legislation. Then comes appropriations, judicial nominations, and the inevitable August recess.
Thorn’s math is simple: if the CLARITY Act doesn’t clear both chambers by late July, the window slams shut. Fall brings midterm campaigning, lame-duck chaos, and zero legislative bandwidth for complex crypto bills.
What this means for the crypto industry
The CLARITY Act is the most significant crypto market structure bill in U.S. history. It would define which digital assets are securities versus commodities, establish Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jurisdiction over spot crypto markets, and create clear registration paths for exchanges.
The passage would trigger a wave of institutional entry. Delay or failure means continued regulatory uncertainty, more Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforcement actions, and U.S. exchanges looking offshore.
Thorn still puts odds at 60 percent (more likely than not), but that’s down from 75 percent for a reason. The next three weeks are critical.
