Following a slump of more than 40 percent from around $96,000 at the beginning of the year in January, Bitcoin appears to have finally reversed its course. According to CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, top cryptocurrency has moved out of its bear cycle.
Bitcoin’s bear cycle is over
In an X post on Tuesday, Ju said that the Bitcoin bear cycle is over, based on the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. According to the below chart, the indicator has shifted into the green “early bull” zone for the first time since 2023.
For the uninitiated, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator combines on-chain metrics such as MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR relative to their 365-day moving averages to identify whether Bitcoin is in a bear, transition, or bull phase.
A shift into the green zone suggests market conditions are transitioning from bearish to bullish, though it is not a guarantee that prices will continue rising. Still, Ju sounds confident that BTC is on the precipice of a prolonged bull run.
In the above chart, it can be seen that the indicator flashed a similar bull phase teaser at the onset of the 2023 bull market. At the time, BTC embarked on a rally that catapulted it from around $16,000 to as high as $70,000 in about a year’s duration.
Recent on-chain data shows positive demand in spot and futures markets alongside price recovery near $70,000-$80,000, aligning with Ju’s updated view after earlier 2026 bearish assessments.
On the exchange-traded funds side, things are taking a positive shape as well. According to data from SoSoValue, U.S.-based spot BTC ETFs have recorded 2 consecutive weeks of net capital inflows, bucking the bearish week ending August 13, which saw outflows worth $389.7 million.
BTC has more legs to run
While the ongoing price rally may appear overextended to some, data shows that BTC is far from done. The BTC Coinbase Premium Index has shown a slight improvement over the past few days, suggesting strengthening demand for the digital asset in the U.S.
Similarly, despite the breakout through the $78,000 level, BTC has not yet shown any signs seen in prior market tops. However, some experts opine that after liquidating billions of dollars worth of short positions, BTC may start chasing the late longs to grab some liquidity.
