Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing a rare demand signal that has only been seen 3 times in the last 7 years. While the top cryptocurrency has crashed 21.7 percent over the past month, it is now showing signs that, from a price perspective, the worst may not yet be over for it.
Bitcoin demand hits critically low level
According to on-chain data obtained on Monday, BTC demand has entered one of its most extreme contraction regimes since 2019.
Notably, Bitcoin’s 30-day growth of combined spot and perpetual futures demand has sinked to -650,000 BTC, a threshold that has only been visited thrice in the chart’s history.
To explain, the 30-day growth of combined spot and perpetual futures demand measures how much Bitcoin buying activity has increased or decreased over the past month across both the spot market and perpetual futures market.
A reading of -650,000 BTC indicates that the digital asset’s prevailing demand has fallen far beyond ordinary market slowdown. Since the spot demand is falling in tandem with futures demand, it shows that weakness is not just confined to leveraged speculation.
Organic buying and derivatives exposure are being withdrawn at the same time, leaving Bitcoin with fewer marginal buyers and less capacity to absorb additional selling pressure.
As can be seen in the following chart, the deeper support level near -650,000 BTC has generally marked the beginning of highly unstable market phases instead of an immediate bottom.
The first breakdown toward this level occurred before the coronavirus crash in March 2020. It showed that the deterioration in demand was already developing before the final liquidity shock.
Later, the metric recovered toward the higher support zone during the capitulation phase. This recovery closely aligned with the actual formation of the pandemic’s bottom.
A similar distinction appeared around the 2022 bear market. Extreme demand contraction reflected a deep structural deterioration, while subsequent interactions with the higher support zone occurred as the market moved through its broader bottoming and rebuilding process.
BTC to fall below $60,000?
Although BTC managed to hold its own on Friday – spending only a little time below the critical $60,000 level before recovering – fears still linger if BTC’s recent bounce is just temporary before a deeper correction.
Exchange data from June 2 hinted that short-term holders are selling their BTC at the fastest pace since February 2026. Unsurprisingly, BTC holders realized losses to the tune of $1.9 billion on Friday as capitulation sentiment spread across the market.
