According to the BTC Ultimate Derivatives Index, Bitcoin’s (BTC) Binance derivatives market index is showing one of its weakest momentum readings in more than a year. While some traders are expecting a contrarian bullish rally, others are waiting for further slide in the cryptocurrency’s price.
Bitcoin derivatives momentum indicator enters stress zone
Exchange data received on Wednesday shows that the Binance derivatives market index has fallen to 0.273, placing it extremely close to the February 2026 stress level of 0.260. What’s more, the current reading is also below the 0.299 figure recorded in May 2024.
For the uninitiated, the Binance derivatives market index is a composite indicator that tracks overall activity and sentiment in Binance’s futures and perpetual markets.
The metric combines signals such as open interest, funding rates, taker buy/sell pressure, and leverage conditions to measure whether derivatives traders are becoming more aggressive or risk-off.
A low reading indicates that leveraged participation and directional momentum in the underlying asset (BTC) is starting to fade. This can happen even if the asset’s price has not yet fully returned to previous cycle lows.
The drop below the May 2024 level is particularly concerning, as it shows that the market’s internal derivatives support is now weaker than it was during that previous correction phase.
Assuming the index continues to remain below 0.300, not much will change with regard to bearish sentiment plaguing BTC, and further price pullback could be looming. However, if it rises above 0.300, it could mean early signs of rising leverage demand and taker activity.
That said, some analysts are expecting a contrarian short-term rally.
Crypto analyst SuperBitcoinBro shared the following hourly chart, suggesting that BTC is currently retesting a breakout from a descending broadening wedge pattern. A bounce off of the pattern could send it to $65,000.
BTC bottom still not in
Seasoned crypto trader Ali Martinez speculates that BTC bottom may not yet be in. According to Martinez, there are 3 key levels that are worth watching to dollar-cost average into BTC – $62,800, $55,000, and $42,500.
The aforementioned price levels are based on Bitcoin’s 200, 300, and 400 simple moving average (sma) levels.
To explain, SMAs are indicators that calculate the average price of an asset over a specific number of past periods (days, weeks) to smooth out short-term fluctuations and show the overall trend direction.
Despite the high possibility of BTC further sliding down, the cryptocurrency saw some relief on Wednesday, as the U.S. core CPI data came in lower than expected.
