The altcoin season has not yet materialized, as the altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins has been hovering in the range between $620 billion and $760 billion, whereas the market cap needs to hit $1.5 trillion for a fully fledged altcoin season. And for the market cap to hit these levels, major altcoins like Ethereum, BNB, and XRP have spearheaded the charge.
Altcoin Season Index lags in neutral ground
The altcoin season index, which measures if the altcoins are outperforming bitcoin, reads a value of 51 on its scale. This shows that the market is saturated, and it’s hanging in the balance between the altcoin and bitcoin season.
If 75% or more of the top altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days, we consider the market to be in Altcoin Season, and the reading will be anything above 75 on the scale. However, the market is currently in a state of uncertainty. This is because top altcoins, which drive the altcoin season, have not been in their best performance, stated Daan, a crypto investor and trader.
ETH crashes below $2K but long-term bullish trend still intact
For instance, Ethereum has crashed back to $1,825, breaking a major short-term support level, the 50-day moving average at $2,440. Although ETH broke below this level in the past, it recovered in just a couple of days. Unlike those times, ETH is struggling this time around.
Nonetheless, crypto netizen Ali mentioned that ETH has reached this ‘floor.’ This means that if ETH holds this level, Ali believes the coin could likely hit values above $2,000, which would be a major factor driving the altcoin season.
However, when we look at the weekly chart and broader trading session, Ethereum has lost its bullish structure. As shown below, the coin was making higher lows and maintaining this uptrend; however, it has now lost this level.
BNB crashes but long-term bulls steady the ship
When ETH is struggling, BNB coin is doing an excellent job of preserving its bullish structure. BNB has maintained its macro uptrend since 2023, even after crashing from nearly $750 to $620. This is evident in the series of higher lows that continue to form on the weekly timeframe. While the correction shook out short-term traders and weakened bullish sentiment, long-term investors have so far defended key support zones.
As long as BNB remains above these higher-low levels, the broader uptrend remains intact, suggesting that the recent decline may be a healthy pullback rather than the beginning of a prolonged bearish trend. Such corrections are common in strong bull markets, allowing the asset to reset overextended conditions before attempting another move higher.
XRP consolidates as it reaches cycle resetting zone
Meanwhile, XRP has dropped sharply from $3.50 in July 2025 to $1.20 as it attempts to stabilize. Although the chart looks bearish, an analyst spotted that XRP is in an accumulation zone.
Analyst Cryptolica observed that the Relative Strength Index has reached a deep zone where it has reached four times during the past 13 years. And whenever the RSI tanked to these levels, it was a market reset.
For the altcoin season to gain momentum, Ethereum will need to return above its long-term uptrend line, while BNB will need to hold its bullish structure. XRP, on the other hand, will need to form a strong foundation in the price range it is currently trading at.