The FIFA World Cup is giving prediction markets one of their biggest moments yet, with trading activity surging as fans and investors alike rush to wager on the outcomes of matches.
Polymarket, one of the largest prediction market platforms, saw more than $2 billion flow through its soccer category during the first 10 days of the tournament. That’s a staggering 300 percent increase compared with the previous 10-day period and a clear sign of how powerful a global sporting event can be for the industry.
Daily activity tells a similar story. Before the World Cup kicked off, soccer-related markets on Polymarket were averaging around $53 million in trading volume per day. Since the tournament began, that figure has jumped to roughly $220 million daily.
Polymarket’s surge in trading activity stems from World Cup fever
The World Cup is arguably the perfect event for prediction markets. It is the world’s most popular sporting tournament, takes place only once every four years, and delivers a constant stream of matches over several weeks.
With multiple games often played each day, traders have a steady supply of fresh markets to bet on, many of which resolve within a couple of hours.
That creates a fast-paced environment where users can quickly move from one market to the next, keeping trading activity elevated throughout the tournament.
But while the headline numbers are impressive, the bigger story may actually be unfolding elsewhere.
The World Cup has also highlighted a growing divide between Polymarket and its U.S.-regulated rival, Kalshi.
Last week, Kalshi reached a major milestone when its total open interest climbed above $1 billion for the first time, hitting a record $1.16 billion. Open interest refers to the total value of active positions that have not yet been settled, and it has grown by around 350 percent since the start of the year.
What’s notable is that Kalshi’s open interest is growing faster than its trading volume.
That suggests many users are holding positions for longer periods rather than constantly buying and selling contracts. In other words, traders on Kalshi appear to be making larger, more deliberate bets and keeping capital committed for longer.
Polymarket open interest still an issue
Polymarket, by comparison, has seen enormous growth in trading activity but relatively little change in overall open interest. Even its U.S. platform has only posted modest gains and remains below the highs it reached earlier this year.
The difference may come down to the types of users each platform attracts.
Kalshi operates under U.S. regulatory oversight and allows customers to fund accounts directly with dollars. That structure can be appealing to wealthier investors and institutions that want exposure to prediction markets without using offshore platforms or handling cryptocurrencies.
The World Cup may be the first event large enough to reveal just how much demand exists from that audience.
At the same time, Kalshi’s position in the market is becoming increasingly unique. Because it operates as a regulated platform offering event-based contracts, it is competing not only with prediction market companies but also with traditional sports betting operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel.
That means the platform sits at the intersection of finance and sports wagering, attracting users from both worlds.
For Polymarket, the World Cup has proven that major sporting events can generate enormous trading activity. For Kalshi, it has demonstrated that regulated prediction markets can attract significant long-term capital.
Together, the two trends suggest that prediction markets are evolving rapidly. What began as a niche corner of the internet is increasingly becoming a serious market where traders, sports fans, and investors are all finding reasons to participate.
And if the first 10 days of the World Cup are any indication, interest in these platforms is only continuing to grow.
