LINK is changing hands at $7.442 at the time of writing. The asset has experienced a rise of 1.57 percent and has recently marked a high of $7.501. On its face, the price is a positive session. In terms of context, the price is yet lower relative to every moving average that holds strong significance.
The moving averages like SMA7 and EMA7 are both at 7.43, and this reading is a sign that the 7-day averages have caught up to the current price and not vice versa. SMA30 is at 7.94, and EMA30 is at 8.00. SMA200 is currently at 9.90, while EMA200 is at 10.38. Right now, the asset is being traded within all of these simultaneously, and it is clear that the trend is not simply short-term weak but falling apart across all timeframes.
The 24 hour gain stood at 2.88 percent and is sitting on top of a 7-day loss of 5.78 percent. This type of green session does not completely fill up for a week of those negative returns. The market is up on the day and declining on the week, meaning that being in a downtrend implies that the bears are still winning.
LINK’s chart structure explains why the bounce stagnates here
The RSI7 reading is standing at 26.81. RSI14 is at 32.35. RSI21 is at 35.26. All of the mentioned three are below the reading of 40. The oversold condition is still not matching here and has been for several sessions. But being oversold amid a trending decline does not necessarily mean a reversal is coming up. It is a measure of the extent to which far the price has shifted regardless of a meaningful counter-rally. LINK has been oversold previously, though it did not see a recovery.
The orange horizontal that is marked at $7.543 is the level that the market continues to keep going back to for testing and failing at. Price fell below it during the course of the June 25 session and remained beneath it throughout the June 28 selloff to the $7.00 area. The relative asset has since recovered to test it from below.
The weekly open and daily open are both currently sitting near $7.44, basically the same level as the current price. The resulting value defines a narrow compression band, with the weekly and daily opens that are functioning as the floor. The price of $7.54 is currently acting as the immediate resistance.
That’s the structure that has significance at this point in time. The problem is not if this asset is up 2 percent today; instead, the thing to note is if there is a close above $7.543 on meaningful volume coming about before the weekly candle closes. But for now, the asset is lagging behind it.
Below the current price, the close short-term support is at $7.28 to $7.30. The $7.00 area, where the price briefly spiked during the June 25 flush, is the structural low. A daily close below the weekly open alignment will open that range again.
The monthly open shows the June’s reality
The green horizontal line designated as Monthly Open is approximately $9.09. LINK began June at that level and is about to end this month near the price point of $7.44. That number is 18 percent lower from the monthly open as well, and all of this has happened in a time period of just one month.
The SMA200 at $9.90 and the EMA200 at $10.38 sit further above still. These are not near-term recovery targets. They represent where the market was trading before the May to June distribution began. Getting back to the SMA200 requires a 33 percent rally from the current price. The EMA200 requires nearly 40 percent.
LINK is not in the range near highs and is waiting to break out. This oracle sector leader is actively trading in the lower third of its recent range, far below the long-term averages. The other indicators, like MACD shows that the MACD line is at -0.339 which in turn is below the signal line at -0.315.
The histogram reading is not special either and stood at -0.024, meaning it is negative but getting narrower. The histogram making this type of move indicates that bearish momentum is shifting pace but for now it is not indicating any reversal signs.
