The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is changing hands at $64,036.54. The asset is higher against last week’s open near $63,320. It is still not there in comparison to today’s pivot price near $64,887.60. Daily volume for the last 24 hours is $30.46 billion, important enough for this and not to be just a weak rally. This digital asset remains confined in a tight, two-week range.
The key here is going to be how to view the short-term vs. long-term signals here. The 7-day RSI reads 61.56, which is in the nice, healthy zone to be in. The 14-day RSI stands with the figure of 55.17. The 21-day RSI stands at 50.82. Each longer reading just dips a little, confirming the recent push is still quite fresh and hasn’t been validated by the slow money. The MACD line just turned bullish to 44.54 against a signal line that remains sitting down there deep at negative 430.64. The histogram is positive 475.19, and it was a good real crossover near price.
The reason why traders are laser-focused on this price point becomes apparent on the 4-hour chart. In early July the price busted through the monthly open around $59,800 and rallied into the weekly open at $63,319.60; the price then tested the daily open zone near $64,226 before snapping back to the current price of $64,070. That previous monthly open acted as a floor during the most recent washout.
Reclaiming the monthy open transformed the sentiment of the entire month. Instead of a sharp move up, it has been a slow, steady grind higher, characteristic of a market testing resistance rather than a market chasing resistance.
Bitcoin’s moving averages are still not providing a clear picture. The 7-day SMA is stable at $63,826.88. For the other simple moving average, the 30-day is at $62,548.81. The two mentioned moving averages are under the current price, and this is what keeps the short-term in the territory of bulls. The 200-day SMA is located far above at $73,513.32, and the long-term averages, like the 200-day EMA, are considerably higher at $75,340.86. From the price perspective, it has been under both of them for multiple months.
The Fibonacci Map retracement to the swing high $66,928.61 from the swing low of $57,747.76 shows price trading above the 23.6 percent retracement ($64,761.93) and just above the 38.2 percent level ($63,421.52). Thus, the pullback from the high has found support on the shallower half of the range, indicating buyers have been coming in prior to giving up a lot of value. Break of $62,338.19, which is representing the 50 percent level, then the retracement grows deeper and the near-term prospects turn weaker.
The real altcoin rally still waits for the green signal
The ETH/BTC ratio becomes important to keep track of the broader altcoin market. Technically, it dropped from 0.0320 in April to 0.0260 in June. This trend is depicting that the largest cryptocurrency has been in the mood of outperformance in comparison to other altcoins for months. The ratio has experienced a rebound above 0.0280 in the past two weeks. At the time of writing the figure is at 0.02927 and is very close to the crucial level of 0.02957, which has served as a resistance in the past. The recent recovery is suggesting that the capital has started to flow into altcoins after going through weakness for months.
The relative trend has continued to improve but still lacks confirmation. The ratio is still under April’s high of 0.032, and this reflects that Bitcoin has continued to lead the market as a whole. In the case that the ratio breaks out above 0.0257, the altcoins could get more interest from the buyers. In the other case, Bitcoin could probably continue its leadership. But for now, the largest cryptocurrency remains in control in comparison to the altcoins that are showing signs of strength.
