Three weeks of ETF swings, followed by geopolitical shocks, accompanied by a clear drop under all of the important Moving averages(MAs). Bitcoin closed Tuesday’s session at $61,730 and has already swept that low, which only traded because the $65,592 support failed clean and triggered a liquidation pattern that pushed the price through the $61,962 daily pivot.
The technical side of Bitcoin
The asset has moved steadily lower from the May high around $78,000 and is now continuing to grind lower, with key levels at $74,580 (still the next level to look at as support and then resistance) ahead of breaking with a quick break after the failure to hold the $66,900-$68,000 zone. The orange zone is marked in the above chart, as this was an area of consolidation of previous range lows and had some very high-volume nodes. These turned to resistance once they were broken down.
In addition to that, there was no base formed here that could support the bulls. On to the opposite side, this quickly turned into resistance. Unless the market climbs back above the $66,900 level and holds it on adequate volume, till then any relief bounce will be just providing the exit opportunity for those who missed the move.
The technicals all agree and show bearishness across the board but one bullish indication is the oversold reading. The 30-day SMA stands at $73077 and the 200-day SMA $78241 both lie above the current trading price of the largest cryptocurrency.
At the time of writing, the MACD histogram recorded the reading of -929. The signal line is expanding based on price action, in contrast to the 14-day RSI at 23.89 does not guarantee to provide the trigger for an upturn but still shows the interest from the sellers. They have succeeded in killing off the bullish shorter-term momentum. Oversold markets can and do stay oversold if the trend is persistent.
What do the fibonacci levels tell us
Fibonacci level when the market from the $82,326–$59,108 swing puts the 78.6 percent retracement at the value of Bitcoin at $64,077 and this is the first level where short-covering becomes mechanical. This level is where traders who were previously involved in the breakdown may start to book profit rather than pressing further.
Above the specified zone, there is the 61.8 percent retracement at the price point of $67,978, and that lands directly at the baseline of the $66,900–$68,000 supply area. Any recovery attempt will need to be tested with respect to that band, and the zone held sellers twice already. If we consider the current price level, the liquidation cluster at $59,500 is the key parameter to take into account. If we lose that level, it also raises the chance of moving to $56,000, with nothing structural in between to slow it down.
What actually drove this
Iran aimed for the U.S. targets in response to the helicopter incident in Hormuz. Markets were betting on a peace deal but the hopes were killed after the incident. The dollar found a bid, equities went through a sell-off trend, and Bitcoin followed suit as a result of the market fear. The price of oil jumped, and since this feeds directly into inflation expectations, and inflation has already printed May CPI at 4.2 percent year-on-year (core 2.9percent) and this aligns with the expectations, the Fed has absolutely no room to cut rates and this is the highest since april 2023.
After the official data release, the U.S. Dollar Index went down below the reading of 100; gold (XAUUSD) in turn responded with a sharp rise of about 30 dollars short-term; Dow futures short-term were down a bit by 0.4 percent; S&P 500 futures short-term were in a negative reading of 0.38 percent; and Nasdaq futures short-term showed the figure of -0.63 percent.
The ETFs tell the interesting story
The $168 million outflows from ETFs this week match up with the $5 billion three-week previous outflow, which is the sole metric figure that the market bears must be aware of. Strategy is still moving forward with the accumulation of more Bitcoins, but sentiment stuck roughly for eighteen hours before geopolitical events washed it out. The buyers entered early this time and it can’t be termed as accumulation.
