During difficult times when AAVE could not cross above the $80 level, Grayscale’s traditional finance model applied to AAVE suggests that the token could be $175. Despite the market being constricted by extreme fear, Grayscale predicts that AAVE could earn ~$60 million in 2026.
The crypto market is going through extreme fear, and traders and investors are stepping aside and waiting for the prevailing uncertainty to clear. The Fear and Greed Index, which captures the sentiment of the market based on the price momentum, market volatility, and market composition, signals that the market is in extreme fear.
With such adverse conditions prevailing in the market, traders have largely stepped aside and are waiting for clearer signals before committing fresh capital. The lack of participation has resulted in weak buying pressure, preventing AAVE from overcoming the key resistance level at $80. Despite several attempts, the token continues to face rejection around this zone as buyers remain unconvinced about the sustainability of a breakout.
The enthusiasm the buyers show when the price reaches the $60 support level seems to have faded as the market reaches a different stage.
AAVE struggles to cross above the $80 level
Despite these unfavorable conditions and AAVE struggling to cross $80, asset manager Grayscale’s traditional finance models show that there is a high chance that AAVE could hit $175.
“Using traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, Grayscale Research believes that the AAVE token has value at current levels. Despite recent headwinds, we think the protocol will earn ~$60 million in 2026; typical fintech multiples (~20x-25x) would imply a current fair value market cap of $1.2 billion-$1.5 billion, or a token price of ~$80-$100 (compared to the current market price of ~$75),” stated Grayscale’s document.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is a method used to estimate what an asset, company, or investment is worth today based on the cash it is expected to generate in the future.
AAVE leads the on-chain credit creation with a large market share
AAVE spearheads on-chain credit creation, one of the most fundamental elements of the DeFi ecosystem, with a significant share of total deposits, outstanding loans, and user activity. With over $59bn in deposits and $25bn of loans outstanding across all DeFi, on-chain credit unlocks a broad range of opportunities; AAVE holds a significant market share.
Meanwhile, another key opinion leader, DukeD, stated that AAVE has been a battle-tested cryptocurrency.
The standpoint that differentiates AAVE from the rest of the market isn’t growth but its durability. When most protocols are still trying to prove product-market fit, Aave already survived multiple cycles, bear markets, liquidity crises, and countless competitors trying to take market share.
