Bitcoin’s dip to $65,700 on Tuesday evening was the lowest price of the asset since early April and finalized the two-week setup of a structural break. It’s now hovering within the $65,592-$70,000 demand zone and is trading at $67,080. The thing to note here will be whether that demand zone remains or becomes a trap. And all of this will depend upon macro conditions over the coming sessions.
The technical side of Bitcoin
There’s not a lot on the technicals that can raise confidence for the market participants. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin ‘Fear & Greed Index’ has dropped to 11 and shows extreme fear. We’ve got all the significant moving averages that are above the current trading price, with the 7-day SMA at $72,373, the 30-day at $77,330 and the 200-day at $79,242.
The daily MACD histogram is now holding values at -909.62 with the signal line not even moving above the zero line once in mid-May. While all three of the windows for RSI are showing oversold values of 9.86 for the 7-day and 21.77 for the 14-day, oversold in a downtrend usually means “cheap” or points towards the start of an upward move. The daily pivot level is $68,055 and will not constitute an upside break of bias until the price can reclaim that level and hold above it for a full session. The cluster of Fibonacci retracements ranging from $69,700 to $74,460 is acting as resistance until that time.
The 4-hour chart structurally looks bearish and has destroyed the hope for the bulls in the short term. The chart is now surrounded by a bearish trendline that has prevented any decent rallies from taking place since mid-May. The asset’s price has bounced back well off of the lows- the wick down to $65,700 against the $65,592 support line being the only encouraging thing from this bounce. However, the price did not manage to hold above $68,055. The bulls need to push the price to a position in the green demand zone around $65,592-$70,000. Below $65,592, there is simply no obvious support in the nar term and the price may then test the levels below $62,000.
The flows are also aligning
On the ETF side, the spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $519.2 million in net outflows on Tuesday. That makes it the twelfth day in a row with net outflows and this is the longest record since the trading started. For the second-largest cryptocurrency, Spot Ethereum ETFs had $90.2 million in net outflows, their sixteenth day in a row with net outflows.
MSTR made a sale of 32 BTC for ~$2.5 million between May 26 and May 31, which is yet another storyline the market can do without. Strategy also disclosed information about the sale in an 8-K filing with the SEC. But the fact that Strategy sold any of its Bitcoin for the first time since Dec 2022, makes the symbolic impact what is key here.
June’s history is genuinely not that great
The seasonality brings an important metric that the purely technical side has missed. In calendar terms, June is not usually great for bitcoin and has had the worst returns for bitcoin at a mean of -0.77 percent for all years on record (median -0.49 percent), where 2026 has already given 8.97 percent, and much of the month is left. If we go back a few years, then only two previous June opens were even more difficult for the asset, like 2022 (-37.28 percent), 2018 (-14.62 percent), and 2013 (-29.89 percent). All three experienced the same problem, which began before the reversal.
From the past time periods, the bad Junes kept slipping for months. June 2019 was when everyone pointed out that that only happened because May was going through the positive rise of 52 percent and the asset crashed again two months later despite everything.