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Geopolitics, Dollar doubts and AI push family offices to rethink portfolios, UBS says

Geopolitics, Dollar doubts and AI push family offices to rethink portfolios, UBS says
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UBS said family offices are reshaping portfolios for a more volatile global environment, with geopolitical conflict, currency uncertainty and the rise of artificial intelligence driving a broad shift toward resilience and diversification.

The Swiss wealth manager said in its Global Family Office Report 2026 that 60% of family offices plan to change their strategic asset allocation over the next 12 months, the highest level UBS has recorded. The report surveyed 307 UBS family office clients across more than 30 markets, with participating families holding an average net worth of $2.7 billion.

Geopolitical risk pushes portfolios toward resilience

UBS said geopolitical conflict has become the leading risk for family offices over both the near and longer term, while concerns about global debt levels and recession risks are also rising.

Rather than making sudden allocation changes, family offices are taking a more measured approach, spreading exposure across asset classes, currencies and regions.

The report shows that developed markets remain the backbone of family office portfolios, even as allocations gradually shift toward emerging market equities and alternatives such as infrastructure, while exposure to real estate is being reduced.

Benjamin Cavalli, head of strategic clients and global connectivity at UBS Global Wealth Management, said family offices are adjusting portfolios in measured ways while maintaining exposure to long-term themes such as AI with greater selectivity.

Dollar confidence weakens as regional diversification grows

UBS said currency positioning is also changing, with 65% of family offices expecting confidence in the U.S. dollar’s reserve status to weaken and many reassessing exposure to dollar-denominated assets. The report said more family offices are adopting multi-currency frameworks, with the euro and Swiss franc emerging as preferred alternatives.

North America still accounts for the largest share of allocations, but investors are increasingly looking to reduce concentration risk by expanding exposure to Asia Pacific, Greater China and Western Europe.

The Middle East showed the strongest appetite for change, with 82% of family offices in the region planning strategic allocation adjustments, the highest share globally.

AI remains the dominant investment theme

Artificial intelligence remained the leading investment theme in the report, with 65% of family offices already invested across the AI value chain, including data center infrastructure, software platforms and semiconductor companies.

UBS said investors are also allocating to the wider ecosystem needed to support AI growth, including power and resources, infrastructure and AI-enabled healthcare.

Yves-Alain Sommerhalder, head of global wealth management solutions at UBS, said family offices are approaching AI with both conviction and selectivity, balancing long-term growth potential with risk discipline.

By contrast, crypto and digital assets remain on the margins of family office portfolios. UBS said just 24% of family offices have exposure to the sector, usually through modest single-digit allocations, though 44% of those already invested now view crypto as part of their strategic asset allocation.

Succession gaps remain a key risk

The report also warned that governance and succession planning remain uneven despite growing professionalization. UBS said 68% of family offices have formal financial performance measurement processes and 60% operate with investment committees.

However, only 35% have a defined succession plan for the family office itself, while just 27% have a structured process to prepare heirs for future roles. UBS said the gap is significant as trillions of dollars are expected to transfer between generations in the coming decades.

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