XRP, the 5th-largest cryptocurrency with a reported market cap of close to $84 billion is laying the groundwork for a short-term rally. However, the digital asset is likely to see a severe correction after the uptrend, on-chain indicators show.
Up and then down for XRP?
XRP’s open interest (OI) has shot up substantially since the beginning of the month. Indicated by the dark blue line in the following chart, the OI is seeing renewed momentum since hitting a temporary low late last month.
In XRP’s context, open interest refers to the total number of active XRP futures and perpetual contracts that traders are holding on exchanges.
When a cryptocurrency’s open interest rises sharply, it means more traders are using leverage to bet on price moves, which can increase volatility and the risk of liquidations in either direction.
However, since the cryptocurrency’s price is getting consolidated, the odds are in a bullish rally’s favor. The following chart shows the digital asset trading with a parallel channel between $1.27 and $1.67 since early February 2026.
In contrast, the bearish case rises from the network value to transactions (NVT) ratio. The ratio is still significantly high and is producing irregular spikes.
A surging NVT ratio indicates XRP’s market value is growing faster than the actual on-chain activity. As a result, it makes any potential price rally more fragile and more susceptible to any derailment.
While the rising open interest is trying to push the price higher, the heightened NVT ratio holds the potential to spoil the party for the bulls.
Overall, the most likely scenario currently looks like XRP entering a short-term bullish momentum first, followed by an increased risk of correction, which may send it all the way down to the next major support level around $0.75.
Exchange data shows positive traction
While on-chain data shows a tumultuous short-term picture for Ripple’s coin, exchange data suggest a bullish future. On May 11, the Binance XRP z-score hit a 3-month high, hinting it could break through the $1.47 resistance level.
Similarly on Wednesday, the Binance XRP whale outflow reached 57.6 percent, indicating that large holders are unlikely to sell the digital asset in the short-term.
However, some concerns remain from an institutional point of view, as Goldman Sachs reported it had completely exited its position in XRP ETFs in Q1 2026.