Solana is currently changing hands for a price of $75.65 at the time of writing. It held through two separate tests in April, bounced price cleanly in late May, and had enough chart memory that its failure this week carries real structural weight. As of Today’s price action, the asset has traded through it and marked a low of $75.34 on the breakdown candle.
The structure is the most important thing right now in comparison to the drawdown percentage of the YoY figure.
The breakdown candle and what happened before that
The 4-hour chart of the asset isn’t the most compelling to consider over the past three weeks. The push for the price level of $98.65 happened on May 12, with significant volume, and seemed to be a range break attempt. It went through a reversal, giving back all but all of the gain within 8 days.
The $86.65 level is clearly visible with the red line spanning the Solana chart. This level becomes important because it has served as a wall against every test of the resistance during April and May and each test made a lower high. The final thrust got to just under $88 at the end of the month but it was quickly pushed back through $87 and $84. This resulted in a slow-burn liquidation, which can also be observed on the chart.
Since the swing high marked at $98.65 the market fell to today’s low of $75.34 (at the time of writing), and in just the time period of 3 weeks, the asset is down a total of 23.6 percent. This is less of a steady decline and can be termed more of a structural break disguised as one. But the reason it may feel more orderly is that every dip hit the previous area of price consolidation and bounced (briefly) before breaking further: $86 supported the price, then resisted it. The level of $84 held for two days and then was not able to hold that as well.
The psychological level of $80 appeared to be supported on June 1 while the price was still trading at $81.32 and by June 2, 18:00 UTC had dropped to $76.75. This type of step-down price action does not invite buying at these levels. This is more of a liquidity clearance scenario.
What the volume profile is telling the market participants
Trade flow is currently representing the figure at 9.4 percent of circulating supply daily at these levels. This is $4.1 billion against a market cap of $43.6 billion. The situation isn’t exactly capitulation but a decline of 7 percent in 24 hours with volume that isn’t parabolic in nature and as per analysis, it can’t be termed as absent bids; it just simply means they are very thin. Price is falling through thin air more than a barrage of sellers. This is important to differentiate because thin-bid breakdowns typically fall off of a cliff or hold sharply and no prolonged or gradual consolidation happens when falling through these zones.
If we take a closer look at the June 2 volume progression with the price move. At 6 am UTC volume was showing up with $3.85 billion and price was $79.59. At 1 pm UTC volume fell to $3.45 billion while the price fell to $78.83. Around 5 hours later, at 6 pm UTC volume rose to $3.89 billion and price was $76.75. The sellers had no hard job to do at that time.
The recovery math and why $86.65 is a long way away
For SOL, $72-$74 looks to be a void with little historical context between now and then. $75.65 will be the next zone if it fails. On the other hand, $76.54 has now flipped into resistance, and $83-$84 is the first major reclaimed level if we take it on HTF, and reclaiming above $86.65 will start to turn the larger bear trend around. SOL still sits 74 percent off all-time highs and 40 percent from yearly highs.