Earlier this month, Jupiter bottomed out around $0.155 and this serves as the recent low on the daily time frame. It has since then had a pretty clean recovery back, scoring a relatively consistent 35 percent from lows. This figure isn’t the current character of the move, though; it’s what the price brought with it when it made highs. It is more of what the price carried when it marked the highs.
What does the trendline depict?
JUP has been compressed into increasingly tighter ranges for nearly eight months by the descending trend line that is marked in the above chart from the November highs of 2025 that hit $0.49; it reached this line again. At the time of writing, the asset had marked the highs of $0.2181 before being rejected.
Daily candle remains open for now, but this rejection will be known to many market participants. Every touch since November has been followed by a move lower, having the line tested and respected each of the times. This is why today’s action needs to be followed up with a closer look rather than calling it just mid-range noise.
The current volume is not supporting the breakout
24-hour volume is currently showing the reading of $9.78 million. The Meteora DLMM USDC-JUP pool, which typically accounts in for the majority of active trading, dealt with $5.52 million of that distributed across roughly $770,000 in pool liquidity. Turnover in relation to pool depth is on the higher side, but total volume on its own is not indicating a conviction move.
If we take a look at the sell-side volume over the past 24 hours, it came in at the figure of $5.09 million in contrast to a buy-side volume that was close to $4.61 million. That confirms the directional lean and it is highly believed that it is not a large imbalance. The price of the asset went up intraday and took some correction, and more of the volume ended up on the sell side.
Momentum is verifying the setup but lacks direction
RSI7 is sitting at 29.6; in contrast, RSI14 is showing the figure of 37.3. By conventional reads, the shorter timeframe is lying in the oversold territory. MACD is still in negative territory based on the histogram widening against price.
But there certainly is a localized tension unique to this price action, and that is the price pushed some 35 percent off of the recent $0.155 low while, at the same time, its shorter-term RSI on the daily scale has now gone into the oversold region. The aforementioned combination of an asset pushing against a major descending structure and the fact that shorter-term trends are already stretched to the downside is suggesting that the trendline test has not been driven by aggressive buyers. It was triggered by a drift upward into that structure, and now that thing is showing reversal.
In the case that RSI14 cannot reclaim 50 on the next push and price manages not to close well above the trendline on meaningful volume, the structure favors a subsequent leg lower. The $0.155 level serves as the reference point a metric needs to be held at. A follow-up test of that level having an RSI on the lower side would carry a varying weight compared to the first.
What holds above if the level breaks
The blue horizontal at around $0.28 to $0.29 is the next significant level that lies higher from the trendline. The red zone at $0.35 to $0.38 has consistently provided firm opposition time after time since the end of 2025 and Fibonacci extensions from $0.20546 (swing low) to $0.22681 (swing high) show the 161.8 percent extension close at $0.24 and the 200 percent extension close at $0.248.
All these are well underneath the mentioned blue horizontal level; hence, here we can see a stack of levels that sit between the current setup and the next structure, with nothing clear about price. A Daily Close above that mentioned trendline would be the first in eight months.
