Ethereum exchange-level Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) on Binance is fast approaching a historical bottoming zone. If the digital asset’s price action replicates previous performances, then it could soon form the current market cycle’s bottom – below the June 26 yearly low of $1,566.
Is Ethereum close to forming a 2026 bottom?
According to exchange data received on Monday, ETH’s Binance NUPL has fallen to -0.35, indicating there is substantial financial stress on the second-largest cryptocurrency by reported market cap.
For the uninitiated, NUPL measures the balance between unrealized profits and losses embedded in a given supply cohort.
When the metric is positive, the tracked ETH supply is holding an aggregate unrealized profit. On the other hand, when it turns negative, that supply is underwater relative to its estimated cost basis.
In the current case, since the NUPL calculation only considers ETH held on Binance crypto exchange, it means that the parameter does not describe the entire Ethereum holder base.
Rather, it represents just a portion of supply located on the market’s largest centralized exchange and, therefore, potentially more available for trading.
In simple words, a reading of -0.35 means that the tracked ETH supply is carrying net unrealized losses equivalent to approximately 35 percent of its current market value.
Such negative levels have historically coincided with the lows of late 2019 and March 2020 – both eventually turning out to be bottoming phases. The ETH NUPL again printed such a negative reading during the 2025 market correction, and the ongoing drawdown in August 2026.
In all the aforementioned cases, different catalysts had produced the same underlying condition – losses had become severe enough to suggest that selling pressure was already mature.
What does it say about the price?
The price-based implications of NUPL hovering around -0.35 means that weak holders are capitulating. As a result, the remaining supply of ETH on Binance becomes less willing to sell at discounted prices.
Once the most loss-sensitive sellers have exited, further downside may generate less marginal supply, allowing modest demand to stabilize price. In addition, the recent rise in Ethereum smart contract creation – alongside shrinking exchange liquidity – could be short-term bullish for ETH.
