The chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year are looking less certain, according to a new assessment from Galaxy Research, even though support for the bill in Washington hasn’t necessarily weakened.
Galaxy has lowered its likelihood of the legislation passing in 2026 to 50 percent from 60 percent. The firm said the move is more attributable to the Senate’s increasingly busy schedule than any major shift in bipartisan support for the bill.
So, it’s not a question of political will, but more a question of finding the time to get the legislation through Congress.
Polymarket keeps passage chances even slimmer
The market is even more cautious. On prediction platform Polymarket, traders are currently giving the CLARITY Act just a 44 percent chance of passing, reflecting growing uncertainty over whether lawmakers can get the bill across the finish line before other legislative priorities take over.
The CLARITY Act is widely regarded as one of the most important pieces of crypto legislation currently under consideration in the United States.
Its goal is to create clearer rules for digital assets by defining how different regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), should oversee the industry.
Supporters say those rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty, encourage innovation, and make it easier for crypto businesses to operate in the U.S.
But while much of the crypto industry has welcomed the proposal, not everyone is convinced.
Banks become biggest hurdle
One of the biggest concerns is coming from the banking sector. Around 4,000 community banks have warned that the bill’s treatment of stablecoins could have unintended consequences for the traditional financial system.
Their concern is that if consumers move more of their money into stablecoins instead of keeping it in bank accounts, community banks could lose a significant source of funding.
Industry groups estimate that as much as $1.3 trillion in deposits could eventually leave the banking system if stablecoin adoption accelerates under a clearer regulatory framework.
Community banks argue those deposits are essential because they help finance mortgages, small business loans, and local economic activity. Losing a large portion of that funding, they say, could make it harder for smaller banks to support their communities.
The debate highlights one of the biggest challenges facing lawmakers.
On one hand, there is growing pressure to establish clear rules that allow the digital asset industry to grow responsibly. On the other, policymakers must weigh how those changes could affect the broader financial system and existing banking institutions.
Even with those concerns, momentum for crypto regulation in Washington appears to be building.
Over the past year, lawmakers have advanced several proposals covering stablecoins, market structure, and digital asset oversight. Many in the industry believe comprehensive regulation is no longer a question of if, but when.
That is also reflected in Galaxy’s latest outlook. The research firm did not lower its forecast because lawmakers have turned against the bill. Instead, it believes the Senate simply has a packed legislative calendar, with budget negotiations and other high-priority issues competing for attention.
For the crypto industry, that distinction matters. Many companies are waiting for clearer rules before expanding operations or launching new products in the U.S. A bill like the CLARITY Act could finally provide that certainty.
For now, however, the legislation remains in limbo. With Galaxy putting its chances at 50 percent and prediction markets even less optimistic, the path forward will likely depend less on political support and more on whether Congress can find the time to act.
