Cardano (ADA) cannot catch a break. After falling more than 43 percent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the 16th-largest cryptocurrency by reported market cap is not showing 3 key signals that point toward further downside action for ADA.
Cardano whales not showing confidence
According to a Tuesday X post by seasoned cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, ADA is showing 3 warning signs that could derail its latest bullish momentum.
Notably, since August 2, the number of whales holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA has fallen from 2,370 to 2,340. This suggests some large holders may be taking profits or redistributing after the recent price increase.
As a result of the added selling pressure, a death cross has been triggered between ADA’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio and its 7-day simple moving average (SMA).
For the uninitiated, a death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average somewhat falls below a longer-term moving average – signalling that momentum may be shifting from bullish to bearish.
It is viewed as a warning of potential further downside, although it is a lagging indicator and does not exactly guarantee a price decline. Consequently, Cardano now has a higher chance of risking a deeper price correction.
Finally, the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential indicator has also flashed a sell signal for ADA. Martinez shared the following ADA daily chart, stating that the sell signal may result in 1–4 candlestick pullback or the start of a new bearish countdown.
Concluding, Martinez remarked that if all these 3 signals get confirmed, then ADA could fall all the way down from its current price of $0.1885 to $0.170 – the channel’s mid-range support level. A further breakdown could expose the lower boundary near $0.144.
A troubling year for ADA bulls
To say that 2026 has been a challenging year for the ADA community would be an understatement. On June 4, Cardano founder, Charles Hoskinson, announced that the ecosystem is likely to face a lot of tough challenges ahead.
The smart-contract protocol has been marred by multiple roadblocks, including the SecondFi hack in July that resulted in a loss of funds worth $2.4 million.
That said, smart money is showing faint signs of hope in ADA. On July 10, Cardano’s RSI hinted toward a potential upward move to $0.20.
