The global crypto market is keenly awaiting Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision. At the time of writing, BTC remains range-bound in the mid-$60,000 area, up a modest 1.8 percent over the past day.
Whale Binance stablecoin inflows drop
According to exchange data received on Wednesday, persistent geopolitical risks and inflationary risks are weighing on risk-on assets, including BTC. The failure to attract liquidity from large investors is prohibiting the top cryptocurrency from surging upwards.
Since late 2025, demand for BTC has failed to rebuild meaningfully. As a result, BTC has been in a prolonged correction phase that is still unfolding, confusing analysts whether a local bottom has already been formed or is yet to be formed.
Over the past 7 months, stablecoin inflows to Binance originating from whales – transactions exceeding $1 million in value – crashed from around $63 billion to just around $25 billion.
Notably, when BTC came down to test the $60,000 level in February and June 2026, these monthly inflows increased, suggesting a level of interest for larger investors. This dynamic has contributed to building an important floor for Bitcoin.
However, as of Wednesday, whales’ participation has retreated back to its lowest level since the end of the October-November 2024 correction. This decline in incoming liquidity on Binance, the exchange with the largest trading volumes in the industry, reflects the underlying weakness in current whale demand.
Eyes on FOMC rate decision
Unsurprisingly, all eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting about interest rate decisions. Data from FedWatch indicates that the odds are in favor of there being no-change in key interest rates, while the probability of a rate hike is around 35.8 percent.
While no change in interest rates is likely to have minimal impact on BTC in the short-term, a Fed rate hike is generally bearish for the cryptocurrency because higher interest rates reduce market liquidity, and make lower-risk assets like bonds relatively more attractive
That said, Bitcoin’s actual price reaction also depends on whether the hike was already priced in and on the Fed’s forward guidance about future policy. Regardless, institutional investors are not wasting the opportunity to buy discounted BTC.
However, concerns linger about BTC’s ‘digital gold’ narrative, as Bhutan recently sold a portion of its BTC stack.
