Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas with 10,000 BTC sixteen years ago, which was the first physical purchase with Bitcoin. Today that is worth ~$774M. Bitcoin is trading at $77,437 now, down 4.03 percent for the week and now below a broken uptrend with strong resistance ahead of it.
The gold-copper ratio: the signal most crypto traders ignore
Bitcoin does not normally show up in the same sentence as gold or copper, but the pair of metals offers one of the least complicated readings on where the world’s capital is.
Gold does best when capital preservation is the theme: heightened uncertainty, flight to safety, and defensive positioning. Copper does best when capital is entering the production cycle: order intakes rising, infrastructure investment surging, and industrial demand increasing. Their relative ratio, and specifically their relationship to the 200-day moving average, is an indicator of the prevailing liquidity regime. A sustained breach of the gold/copper ratio above its 200-day MA indicates a sustained move from capital that’s productive and into capital that’s on to the defensive side of it.
That is where things get interesting for Bitcoin. Vytautas Mackonis, COO at ALCUM told The Coinheadlines that neither copper nor Bitcoin reacts to global liquidity conditions directly.
He added that “Copper has historically led improvements in credit conditions and industrial activity. The same goes for Bitcoin. Since it has been absorbed into institutional portfolios over the past several years, Bitcoin has become increasingly aligned with other macro-sensitive assets.”
We can use the 2020 reflation as a reference. The Fed cut rates down to 0.25 percent, the Fed spent $4.6 trillion in asset purchases from Mar 2020 to Mar 2022, and the Fed passed the CARES Act that included $2.2 trillion in fiscal stimulus in a span of a few months. This produced a large impulse response of risk assets, including Bitcoin. The setup in 2026 is different on a fundamental basis; the Fed cut rates to 3.50-3.75 percent by Dec-25, and according to a forecast by J.P. Morgan Asset Management at the beginning of 2026 Fed would maintain a bias towards easing throughout the year, there is much smaller stimulus at this time and the impulse response of assets (according to Mackonis) should be less strong.
Gold is not selling off
When risk appetite bounced back in 2020 gold sold off as capital shifted to cyclical assets but not now. Gold remains near all-time highs, and the central banks bought 863 tons in 2025 which is more than double the average of 473 tons of purchases from 2010-2021.
With gold not falling, there is no simple 2020 template at play with Bitcoin. Risk appetite is divided. There is no clear liquidity impulse being provided by the macro backdrop and a $126,198 ATH and 38.72 percent drawdown for Bitcoin with 95.4 percent supply issued and a $1.55 trillion market cap represent a market treading water in anticipation.
Price structure: trendline broken, key levels in play
Bitcoin has rallied back from its late March low close to $63.5K and an ascending trend line was developed in April and up to the beginning of May. That trendline was broken and price has failed to rally past resistance of $83,000-$84,000 and is sitting at $77,437. In the short term the bitcoin bounce looks close and may reach $80,000 followed by the hold of monthly open around mid-$76k.
Within these two price points lies a range. Support is immediate support at $74,580; losing this level on a daily close targets $65,592. Resistance is first identified as $88,000; this is 13.7 percent away with no immediate support. Higher than that, the range is capped at $94,751 and $96,000 from December’s 2025 high.
Pizza day, 16 years on: the asset repriced its function
When looking back after 16 years, that 10,000 BTC pizza purchase has a new perspective based on what one thought Bitcoin was trying to achieve. Brickken CRO, Ludovico Rossi, puts it best: “the pizza was the proof of concept, never the use case.” Transaction frequency went down and the volume grew exponentially. Also, the involvement of the big institutions like Blackrock runs a Bitcoin ETF, with corporations like Microstrategy holding it as their main treasury reserve.
Vugar Usi Zade, CEO at MEXC, comments on the original significance: “Bitcoin Pizza Day proved that Bitcoin could be spent, and someone else was willing to accept it.” The first purchase was facilitated through a post in a forum that lacked any kind of payment infrastructure underneath. Today’s is $25.70B in daily volume across exchanges, custodians, and payment rails, none of which existed in 2010.
What the data supports
Bitcoin at $77,437 has structural technical vulnerabilities. The April trend is broken and $88k is a difficult 13.7 percent away. There is no obvious macro driver emerging. Gold has not confirmed the rotation out, while the 2026 easing cycle is nowhere near as large as that of 2020. The gold-copper ratio is still not signaling capital is flowing into productive uses. The floor underpinning the bull case (at a $1.55 Trillion Market Cap) is more of a structural thing: near zero new supply entering the market and institutional demand. Fresh catalysts for price discovery above $88k seem absent as of now. $74,580 retains a firm floor on the range; breach this and $65,592 is available before new highs become a factor.