Bitcoin is currently changing hands at $62,195, down 0.62 percent from Sunday’s high of $65,600 and down 0.6 percent from its low of $61,600 on Tuesday. It appears that there have been three failed attempts to hit $64,400 since June 20; each of the moves sold off harder than the last attempt. Right now, Bitcoin is trading lower than the mentioned level of $62,919, and significantly below every major moving average, like SMA7 at $63,565, SMA30 at $66,428, and SMA200 up to $76,449 and this is the real trend. Price has been below the trend for so long that even a strong reversal bounce could barely fill the gap.
The MACD histogram is now turned positive and showing a reading of +389, the first green print in a row subsequent to a run of reds. The MACD line is -$1,977 with a signal line at -$2,366. The market participants on the sell side are still in control but they are losing a step at the moment. The RSI confirms the same half-measure. RSI14 is 37.29 with RSI7 at 38.07. Below neutral but not near oversold. Momentum is repairing, not reversed.
Where the base actually exists
The typical swing low for this move stands at $59,109, and for the swing high, it is $77,991. Every retracement level that is currently overhead resistance is located at the 78.6 percent mark around $63,150. This level is very close to the yellow level on the chart at $63,320. The asset price has already broken through the yellow level three times this week. The aforementioned combination makes more sense than any other indicator for Bitcoin.
Above that, $66,322 is representing the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8 percent. The price level of $68,550 serves as the 50 percent boundary, the level that each of the chart structures and the Fibonacci grid are treating as the real test of the possibility that this is a bounce or a base. As far as this largest cryptocurrency closes through that band, each and every attempt for a rally is a sell-into-strength setup for those who are still holding a position from higher up.
There is a significant gap between conviction and cash flow
The report from Cryptoquant that was released recently has mentioned the Strategy’s cash reserve, which has seen a drop of 38 percent since january. while the company has almost quadrupled the amount it is obligated to pay in dividends on its preferred stock STRC over the past seven years to nearly $1.2 billion. Dividend coverage has seen a downtrend spanning about seven years to about 14 months. STRC changed hands at $82.50 last week, which is approximately 17.5 percent below the $100 level.
It is important to note the point that the report doesn’t quite say outright. Strategy has devoted the last two years to investing in the price action we see above, i.e., the price ascends from Fibonacci and then rolls back to the significant Fibonacci levels. The company did not ever give itself a chance to choose where to buy against this chart and it was fully devoted to buying against the chart’s biggest recurring buyer. According to CryptoQuant, the unrealized loss comes up close to a figure of $10.6 billion, a figure that is equivalent to every coin estimated that was bought between the times of 2024, 2025, and 2026 that is underwater. The mentioned number isn’t abstract at all, considering that this unrealized loss is the typical result of making the purchases at levels wherein the momentum indicators like RSI and MACD setup have failed on multiple occasions to hold.
Strategy isn’t forced to sell. It can choose to either issue new shares or raise the dividend, and the company is already doing that. Even so, none of those moves is going to fix the root problem. The problem is that Strategy has to meet its dividend obligation on a fixed date, whereas this largest cryptocurrency’s price does not need to do so.
