In its mid-year report published on Wednesday, asset management firm 21Shares stated that it is still confident of its 2026-end base case price prediction for Bitcoin at $100,000. The report also touches on the recent crypto-based exchange-traded fund capital flows.
Bitcoin still on track for $100,000 by year end
The Zurich-based asset manager noticed that despite BTC falling more than 50 percent from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency is still poised to hit a six-figure price target by the end of 2026.
The report specifically calls out BTC’s “familiar” price pullback that is usually followed in post-halving periods. To recall, the digital asset saw its last halving in April 2024 when the network’s block rewards were decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
To explain, Bitcoin halving is an event which takes place almost every 4 years, where the reward received by BTC miners – for adding new blocks to the Bitcoin network – is reduced by 50 percent. As a result, it reduces the rate at which new BTC is created, making the supply more scarce over time.
According to the report, BTC’s current drawdown is relatively milder than those seen in previous market cycles, which typically surged beyond 80 percent fall in price from the top. The report adds:
“Notably, bitcoin has also, so far, avoided the outright capitulation that defined earlier downturns – it has not yet traded below its aggregate cost basis of $54,000. These are signs of a more mature market with stickier capital flows.
Although 21Shares’ prediction sounds encouraging, many crypto analysts aren’t quite convinced. In an X post on Wednesday, crypto analyst AlejandroBTC shared the following BTC weekly chart, suggesting that the digital asset is likely to continue its downtrend below $30,000.
Institutional participation in BTC steady
In addition to discussing the BTC price by year end, the report provides commentary on recent crypto ETF capital flow trends.
The report notes that assets under management tied to ETFs stood at around $140 billion as of May 2026 – down approximately 15 percent on a year-to-date basis.
Similarly, total BTC holdings in spot ETFs reached 1.25 million, roughly 8 percent below prior peaks. Notably, institutional participation in BTC remains firm through new ETF products. However, concerns remain regarding the longevity of BTC’s current rally.
