Longs caught more heat than shorts over the past 24 hours. Over the past hour, the shorts caught all the run-over. That reversal, positioned directly atop the bounce from $63,700, is the setup we need to have attention on.
Longs were affected yesterday and shorts are facing the same right now
Bitcoin is changing hands at about $64,871 in the hour-based perpetual chart, and the session is trading higher modestly on the back of bouncing off the tuesday support at $63,736, which it then tested two or three times. The prior swing high at $67,255 has not been tested since the adjustment was initiated, as the $62,531 ground underneath is still intact.
At the time of writing, the coinglass data shows that over the last 24 hours there are long liquidations of $27.64 million against short liquidations at $24.35 million, which in a 53/47 mix feels fairly normal as an early shakeout. Dig into the latest hour and that chart is giving a flipped scenario, with $352k of longs liquidated against $3.39 million of shorts, a similar trend we also see with 4-hour longs at $465k versus $9.6 million shorts.
The bears that scaled into the positions for the move down are now going through pain.
The only fund that was carrying the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF tape
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net daily flow of $32.11 million and total net inflows now stand at $51.36 billion, while net assets have been standing at $77.46 billion and that figure is equivalent to 6.08 percent of bitcoin’s market value.
IBIT alone drew a net $89.83 million. FBTC saw $43.08 million in outflows, while ARKB shed $14.64 million. GBTC, BITB, and the rest were relatively flat at zero net for the day. One fund accounted for all the action, and it wasn’t even enough to totally offset FBTC & ARKB combined without the overall picture still managing to be in net inflow. It says as much about IBIT’s domination right now as it does about institutional conviction being back across the spectrum.
The structure is holding strong but the momentum is depicting something different
The daily metrics for Bitcoin indicate a stabilizing market and are not ones that can be called aggressive or accelerating; RSI7 has arrived at 44.32, RSI14 is at 48.57, and RSI21 has come down to 48.15, all hovering just below 50. At the time of mentioning the data, there are no dips that are oversold, and no soaring indicators seem to be on the extended side. The MACD reading has come down a little on average to 189.63, and that is combined with a signal line that is standing at 305.67. This is producing a negative reading of 116.04 on the histogram but for the price action, it is mostly on the flat side.
The current Bitcoin price is still trading above the daily pivot at $63,917.69, and this is keeping the short-term bias on the bullish side.
The short moving averages are in sync with the tape. SMA7 is right there at $64,328.55, and EMA7 is sitting at $64,301.94, both essentially where the price action is currently resting, and that is showing that most of the action in the past week has essentially been chop sitting on top of its average for the past week as opposed to some kind of up or down trend that existed previously.
In addition to this, 30-day numbers show us that we have SMA30 at $63,695.95 and EMA30 at $64,216.04, and all of these are pretty close, depicting most of the recent action has consolidated along the top side of their monthly average.
The longer-term scenario is rather different, with SMA200 at $71,727.62 and EMA200 at $74,106.66, being significantly higher than the current spot price. The gap that is formed is not expected to fill that up on the strength of just a single squeeze.
The Fib cluster is aligning closely with the support levels
Fibonacci levels match closely with bitcoin’s current price structure. The 23.6 percent retracement is at $64,747.76 near bitcoin’s current price, followed by the 38.2 percent level at $63,410.06, which corresponds with the $63,736 area of support where bitcoin has had strong buys this week. If the price action holds strong, the next critical higher-price destination could be the 127.2 percent extension that is standing above recent swing highs around $67,255, at $69,402.21.
