Bitcoin’s cycle low could be around the corner, as the active Bitcoin addresses have reached the 2018-19 low levels, an event that happens when the market low is near. With the market cycle lows within sight, an analyst says that this is the last buy zone for buying Bitcoin. Although there is a high chance of Bitcoin appreciating after bottoming, it comes with a huge risk.
BTC active address EMA hit 2018-19 low levels
CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytical platform, pointed out that the active Bitcoin addresses have reached the 2018-19 low levels. The 30-day EMA of the active addresses was 609,688 on July 19, 2026, while in July 2018 it was 570,710. On the other hand, the longer technical indicator—the 100-day EMA—was 621,957 on July 27, 2026, versus 605,433 in January 2019.
The thesis is that the levels are not specific, but the occurrence of the events is. For instance, when BTC reached its price bottom of $3208 in December 2018, the 30-day EMA low came 166 days before the price bottom, while the 100-day EMA low came 44 days after it.
BTC about to bottom as it follows 2018-19 path
When the same theory is applied to the current scenario, Bitcoin’s price low was $58,535 on June 30, 2026. The 30-day and 100-day activity lows followed 19 and 27 days later. Now that both averages have since turned upward, closing August 8 at 664,764 and 640,603, respectively, there is a high chance that Bitcoin could be bottoming.
With the prices bottoming and reaching the trendline as shown in the chart below, an analyst who goes by the pseudonym Cryptolica thinks that this is the last buy zone as Bitcoin will take off from here.
Risk dominates BTC upside recovery
As shown in the chart below, when Bitcoin was making higher highs, the Relative Strength Index was making higher highs, a bearish divergence. Now all of a sudden Bitcoin has started to form a new lower high, which shows that the persisting bearish divergence has started to manifest.
Now that Bitcoin has fallen and formed a lower high, the signal becomes more significant. It suggests that buyers were unable to push BTC back to its previous peak, meaning selling pressure is increasing and the market structure is beginning to weaken.
As the BTC structure begins to weaken and the prices head towards the bottom, the market is convinced that an upside would be following after the bottom-out.
However, traders should remain cautious during any potential recovery, as an initial rebound does not necessarily confirm the beginning of a new bullish trend. Until Bitcoin establishes a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, the upside could remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure and another correction.
