Wall Street brokerage firm Bernstein, on Monday, said that it is sticking with its $150,000 Bitcoin (BTC) call by the end of 2026, despite the crypto market being in a prolonged downtrend that has razed its market cap from around $4.25 trillion in October 2025 to $2.19 trillion as of July 2026.
Bitcoin sentiment much worse than reality
In a client note released on Monday, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani remarked that the top cryptocurrency by market cap recently re-tested the lows around the $60,000 area, before making a small recovery to $63,000.
According to Bernstein, the mild correction shown by BTC is a sign that the digital asset is slowly maturing. However, the firm added that it does not confirm that the cryptocurrency is fully clear of the downturn.
The note read that BTC’s latest downturn has run 3 quarters from the cycle top recorded back in October 2025 when the digital asset created its current all-time high of $126,000. The current downturn, however, is still shorter than the 12 to 15 months that previous price corrections have usually lasted.
Meanwhile, the cumulative inflows from treasury firms and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit an estimated $10 billion in 2026, a significant pullback from $60 billion recorded in 2026. This is not surprising, considering the top corporate buyer of BTC – Strategy – started selling some of its holdings this year.
Spot BTC ETFs have seen capital exodus worth roughly $5.5 billion in 2026 against an asset base of around $76 billion. The withdrawal of capital, coupled with about 50 percent price reduction in BTC, made the sentiment appear far worse than what the underlying flows suggest, Bernstein added.
Despite the relatively small capital fleeing spot BTC ETFs, the overall trend appears to be net positive. Data from SoSoValue shows that $74.3 billion worth of assets are currently tied in spot BTC assets, representing around 6 percent of the digital asset’s total market cap.
Regulations moving in positive direction
In its note, Bernstein stated that the regulatory environment surrounding digital assets looks to be moving in a positive direction. The stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act – passed and signed into law in July 2025 – paved the way for crypto futures products now rolling out in the U.S.
Bernstein also said that the odds of the passing of the CLARITY Act in 2026 are about 50 percent, citing latest data from prediction markets platform Polymarket.
Concluding, the brokerage company reiterated its stance of BTC reaching as high as $150,000, despite it sounding a little too ambitious in the context of prevailing market conditions.
Bernstein isn’t the only entity with such bold predictions. On June 24, 21Shares forecasted that BTC will end the year around $100,000.
