As of Monday, Solana’s native coin – SOL – the 7th-largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $42.8 billion is exchanging hands at almost $74. However, a crypto analyst recently remarked that the digital asset may actually never create a new all-time high (ATH) ever.
SOL is unlikely to ever create a new ATH
In an X post shared on Monday, crypto analyst cape shared the mathematics behind the undesired prospect of SOL never being able to create a new high. To recall, SOL’s current ATH is roughly $294.94, recorded in January 2025.
However, since then the digital asset has experienced a significant drawdown in price. According to the following weekly chart, SOL has lost almost 75 percent of its value over the past 532 days.
Cape notes that back in January 2025, SOL’s active circulating supply was around 340 million coins. As of June 2026, the total number of SOL circulating in the market is around 580 million, approximately 70 percent increase in supply in about 15 months.
If SOL surged to $294 in June 2026, its total market cap would have to hit $150 billion, whereas, back in January 2025, the figure was around $78 billion. In simple words, it means that SOL would require almost double the capital inflow just to reach the same price it had hit with less supply.
The analyst added that the single biggest bullish catalyst SOL had was U.S. president Donald Trump launching his own memecoin – the Trump Coin. This event was likely a “one time event that cannot be repeated or topped.”
Meanwhile, SOL inflation – or the rate at which new coins are entering the market – is running at a rate of 3.78 percent annually. The following screenshot shows the details of SOL’s inflation rate.
However, what cape probably missed to mention is that a significant chunk of SOL is staked on the network, effectively removing the quantity from the market and reducing the magnitude of potential selling pressure.
All is not lost for SOL
Even if SOL is not able to record a fresh ATH again, it doesn’t mean there’s no upside to the cryptocurrency. In a Sunday X post, seasoned crypto trader Michael van de Poppe stated that $120-$130 could be a potential Q3 or Q4 2026 target for the digital asset.
SOL is also starting to perform better against Bitcoin, as on Friday, it broke a 6-month downtrend against the premier cryptocurrency. That said, some bearish clouds still hover over the cryptocurrency.
