Solana ETF inflow to market cap reached another high, jumping from 0.995 percent July 16 to 1.484 percent July 17 until 1.508 percent at the time of writing. On the surface, that sounds like a quick spike up in ETF buying. But based on the flow numbers, the ratio jumped up with net zero inflows on July 17.
Solana ETFs’ holdings gave a rise of 49 percent but had no new inflows
According to the data from sosovalue, july 17 has shown $0 net flows. During the week of July 13, all six Solana ETFs just experienced an inflow of $1 million. The market cap of this layer 1 project changed barely and just went from a drop from $43.85 billion to $43.69 billion. Both the flows and the market cap didn’t shift to that extent that could explain the 50 percent jump in the metric of the ETF ratio.
However, AUM on the native SOL side popped up by 2.85M SOL overnight (5.80M to 8.65M and that represents a 49 percent upside) with no creation to speak of. Flows flat, market cap flat, holdings almost up half again. Cannot have all those three happening during an actual inflow event and this is where the gap exists.
The main origin of the gap
The stated total has been hiding a months-long understatement. The sum total of the 6 funds BSOL, FSOL, GSOL, VSOL, SOEZ, and TSOL on 16 July. In comparison, it was 8.646M SOL versus the reported headline figure of 5.796M SOL.
This gap is nothing different and it measured close to 1.27 million SOL during the time of late March, and it expanded to 2.07 million by May 25, and by mid-June it reached 2.90 million. According to the provided data, the gap closed at zero and since then it’s been there.
Rebuild the series off of the fund-level holdings throughout, and the July breakout vanishes completely. At the June and July prices of the token, the ETF’s portion of the circulating supply was 1.514 percent and 1.513 percent, respectively (today it is 1.508 percent). On a like for like basis, this metric has stayed on a plateau since late May and has no changes, just on the flat side.
The majority of Solana’s ETF accumulation is backed by just one fund
Real ETF demand is still limited and has made for just $16 million in net inflows and that is spanning across all six Solana funds, considering the time period of the past 30 days. BSOL has been accounting for $18.5 million and FSOL came up with $2.4 million. GSOL recorded $5.6 million in outflows. BSOL is now holding 6.13 million SOL of the 8.74 million SOL, which is held across all six funds and that is making about 70 percent of the total, while TSOL has lost $102 million since the time when it was launched. SOL has also gone into the correction phase from $187 to around $76, and that is the factor that pushed the ETF-to-market-cap ratio higher even as holdings stayed mostly flat. With demand concentrated in BSOL and overall inflows still weak, the data shows little evidence of accelerating institutional demand for SOL.
The record ratio is not depicting anything for the greater ETF demand
Revising data offers more credence to the adjusted series, but it doesn’t provide definitive proof of demand acceleration in ETFs. ETF-level data indicate that SOL holdings have hovered in a tight 8.6 million to 8.75 million band since late May or around 1.5 percent of total supply.
BSOL holds ~70 percent of this, and the continued outflows out of the other one signal the demand hasn’t been diversified across much of the market but is contained. Given the lack of flows into funds, this seems to be a reflection that markets have established their new level of ETF demand and it has the price itself that is doing the heavy lifting with regard to its climb.
