Ethereum is down 40.5 percent on a year-to-date basis as it exchanges hands slightly above $1,765 as of Wednesday. Crypto analysts are predicting that there might be more problems for ETH in the coming weeks, as it could be nearing final capitulation before resuming a bullish trend.
ETH is closing in on final capitulation
According to crypto analyst CryptoBullet, the claim that ETH’s monthly relative strength index (RSI) has hit its most oversold level record ever is not entirely true. The analyst cleared that the digital asset’s monthly RSI has never been in the oversold territory.
For the uninitiated, the monthly RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and strength of an asset’s price movements using monthly price data. Readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions, while readings below 30 may indicate oversold conditions and potential long-term buying opportunities.
CryptoBullet remarked that ETH RSI has been making lower highs and lower lows since 2017, moving within a descending trend parallel channel.
The crypto analyst opined that in the second half of 2026, ETH monthly RSI will finally reach an oversold level for the first time ever. This will also coincide with the bottom of the descending trend parallel channel at around price level of $900.
Once the capitulation around $900 is over, ETH will begin its multi-year uptrend. The confirmation of a bullish uptrend would be if the cryptocurrency successfully breaks above the 21-day moving average level.
Golden triangle pattern spells doom for ETH
Meanwhile, fellow crypto trader Merlijn The Trader noted how ETH has recently broken out of the 9-year golden triangle pattern.
To explain, a golden triangle pattern is a bullish chart pattern where converging trendlines compress price action into a triangle. This signals a potential breakout and strong upward move once resistance is breached.
The crypto trader noted that this is a bearish development, as the last time ETH broke out of this pattern, it led to the infamous COVID crash of March 2020 which resulted in ETH falling all the way down to $100.
In retrospect, it turned out to be a tremendous buying opportunity for ETH, as the digital asset went on to create a new all-time high of $4,946 in August 2025.
Recent on-chain data indicates that a supply-scarcity for ETH could be developing, as its staked supply hit the 40 million mark. Institutions continue to pour money into ETH, as Bitmine bolstered its total holdings by 126,971 ETH on June 8.
