The odds of the CLARITY Act passing before the upcoming Senate recess crashed to an all-time low of 27 percent, Polymarket said on Wednesday. The stats indicated at a diminishing ray of hope among the investors who have been patiently waiting for this U.S. crypto market structure bill to be signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump and a subsequent market rally.
The regulation is aimed at providing a clear definition to the digital assets sector, complete with consumer protection guidelines, operational mandates for crypto firms, and the division of sector governance between the SEC and the CFTC.
The CLARITY Act has been stuck in a gridlock for nearly five months with lawmakers regularly meeting members from the crypto and banking sectors to straighten out differences related to token issuance ethics, stablecoin yields, and DeFi compliance rules.
Bankers join the pro-CLARITY side
Rob Nichols, the CEO of the American Bankers Association, expressed support for the CLARITY Act on Wednesday. During a televised interview, Nicholas said there is a “lot of good” in the CLARITY Act.
Representing the bankers Nicholas disclosed that he is pushing for minor edits in the 600-page CLARITY draft to ensure a yield-ban loophole linked to stablecoins is closed.
He said while the bill bars stablecoin issuers from offering yields, the legal language should include “stablecoin affiliates and crypto exchanges” to keep them from bypassing the rule.
Nicholas stressed that the Congress is seeing stablecoins as “payment assets” for transactions and not “deposit assets” to replace bank savings.
The American Bankers Association, in this context, is not obstructing the bill’s passage — but is batting for small edits in “two paragraphs” of the bill.
“The is about 600 pages. And there’s only two paragraphs that were suggesting tiny surgical edits. So the bill do exactly what the senators want it to,” Nicholas said. “I do think that the crypto and the banking sectors can coexist.”
This endorsement of the CLARITY Act from the bankers’ side comes as a pivotal development after Senator Bernie Moreno recently accused the banks of pushing back against crypto legislation because it fears losing part of its dominance over the financial system.
Why the delays
The rapidly shrinking congressional calendar is adding pressure for the CLARITY Act to get to President Donald Trump’s signing table. The recess starts on August 7, 2026.
Recently, an ethics framework was added to the bill text on July 22. It proposes banning federal officials, including the President and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office. Furthermore, it requires public officials to sell crypto holdings or place them in a blind trust.
While this ethics framework was added to the bill text, it has not been voted on or enacted into law. This is why it remains a point of active contention in the Congress.
Because the broader CLARITY Act remains stuck in committee over these ethics disputes no floor vote has occurred to pass the ethics rules or the bill itself.
Paul Atkins, the chairperson of the SEC, reiterated this week that CLARITY Act will give America an unprecidented lead in the global crypto space.
“We are ready, willing and able to come out with rules, you know, that address the same issues in clarity and other aspects of the crypto market. Ultimately, we need the certainty of a statute that will help future proof so that we have clear direction to for,” Atkins noted.
A similar sentiment was echoed by Senator Cynthia Lummis on Wednesday when she said that the Congress members from the Democratic Party have been holding the bill back.
“Now that partnership is the foundation this bill stands on and it’s why I reject any suggestion that this bill is partisan. This bill is bipartisan,” Lummis noted. “Ive listened to my Republican and Democrat friends incorporated their priorities and tried to create the best bill possible.”
As of now, a definitive timeline for the bill to pass remains unclear.
