This July, Binance clocked in just above $35 billion Bitcoin spot volume. In November of 2024, that exchange did $246 billion BTC spot volume. Same spot, same venue, 86 percent drop of the numbers that matter.
Bitcoin: The history is repeating itself
Spot volumes on all major venues have declined by over 75 percent since the late-2021 peak. This decline in volumes has been fairly broad-based, with for example, volume on Bybit down by 85 percent, Coinbase down by 61 percent, and OKX down by 67 percent since that peak. All this indicates that it is not a liquidity migration story and not one of these venues losing share to another as either routing technology changes or liquidity is pulled from one venue and concentrated into another. Instead, all major exchanges produced this shape in declining volume at basically the same time, so the only explanation left is less Bitcoin is being traded.
The much less sharp retreat of Coinbase, comparatively, deserves a brief aside. Of the 61 percent decrease vs an 85 percent fall at Bybit, this means the rout has hurt flows related to derivatives and offshore harder than the spot-focused, more U.S.-centric, regulatory end of the market. Consistent with a risk-off pullback into more speculative territory from the trading base rather than a full-fledged exodus by all the different types of market participants.
Looking at the chart again, not only is the current reading dismal relative to 2024 but is close to the lows of mid-2023 and this is the second half of the previous bear market. This was all before any real ETF inflows or halving narrative showed up in the real action. A market that took some two years to re-acquire volume has completed the round trip in roughly 9 months.
The reason why the price is not important here
The Bitcoin price may be trading at the same price level without much volume, but not having many traders may not necessarily support a strong move, especially since the development of a new trend requires true support from traders who actually made these moves through purchasing on a breakthrough price or selling on the breakdown of the price. We see that the three price peaks, November 2024, January 2025, and October 2025, all are accompanied by high volume, so their rises carry sufficient support.
The lowest points show a price made without firm resolve. Now we are in a stage where the July 2026 period has hit near one of the lowest levels of volume on the chart.
That’s a longer stretch and a thin volume during a range is normal. Thin volume this deep, this broadly spread across venues, sustained for months, describes a market where most participants have simply stepped back rather than one that’s quietly accumulating in the background.
What parameter is keeping the market participants aside
There are two or three macro causes that could explain the slump better than any crypto-specific ones. The rapidly escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to drive down investors’ appetite for risk across the board, and this is nowhere to be seen more clearly than in assets further along the risk curve. Also, inflation data has continued to surprise to the downside thus far, ensuring that the impetus for persistently high rates was around for longer than markets had anticipated.
Much of the cash that could flow into crypto flowed into stocks, thanks to surging tech earnings. As of last week, stock gains were struggling to accelerate. If stock gains decelerate at a time when crypto volume is at a multiyear low, it’ll be difficult for either market to bring in fresh liquidity.
There is also a second-order effect that’s being amplified here. Markets of very low volume will give whatever move eventually materializes in whichever direction an extra push because there is not much depth to carry it. A market of this sort does not take that much additional capital when and if it is going to move into the market.
And that works both ways. It also suggests that the ultimately inevitable breakdown or upside surprise is more likely to be a clean, nasty event than a slow and steady process, because an intense climb or dip takes real consensus that this market can’t presently deliver.
