Bitcoin (BTC) is up more than 6 percent over the past week, exchanging hands at slightly above $64,900 as of Wednesday. While some skeptics aren’t quite sure about BTC bottoming out during its recent fall to $59,000, research and brokerage firm K33 opines that the bear market is nearing its end.
Bitcoin bear market is close to its end
In its latest market report, K33’s Head of Research Vetle Lunde emphasized that the proportion of BTC long-term holders (LTH) has surged to a record 79 percent.
Lunde noted that a standout feature of the 2024-25 crypto bull market was the large volume of old BTC holdings starting to become active on-chain again. These holdings were likely sold at all-time high (ATH) values around October 2025.
In stark contrast, the 2026 market has seen significantly low reactivation of old BTC holdings. In this context, old coins refer to BTC holdings that have been held for at least 2 years or more.
By June 6, only 218,421 BTC were reactivated, resulting in much lower relative selling pressure. In the report, Lunde argued:
“The only year to experience lower reactivation of old supply by June 6 was 2012, when only 70,600 BTC aged 2 years or more had been reactivated by that date. In contrast, 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated by June 6, 2024, highlighting the stark difference in on-chain selling pressure in 2026 compared to the past two years.”
The steep fall in old coin selling activity suggests that LTH are less inclined to sell. At the same time, patient market participants do not mind slowly absorbing BTC supply, offering another key evidence of the bear market nearing its end.
The current BTC on-chain dynamics align closely with a pattern observed in almost every prior bear market. According to K33, before the end of the bear market, an increasing proportion of the circulating supply ends up in the hands of LTH as the market moves closer to its trough.
Exchange data suggests looming sell-off
The on-chain movement of BTC paints a positive outlook for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. It is also supported by recent encouraging trends seen in spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as evident from the daily chart below.
That said, exchange data obtained on Tuesday shows that BTC leverage ratio on Binance has increased to 0.20, a level that has previously been seen before major market sell-offs.
Still, institutional appetite for the digital asset remains strong. On Tuesday, asset management giant BlackRock disclosed that it is launching BITA, a Bitcoin ETF that earns monthly income for its holders.
