ASTER is currently changing hands at $0.783 after a four-hour candle opened at $0.760 then rocketed to $0.794 before falling back to $0.756 and standing 3.16 percent higher. If we take a broad look, the large numbers are performing a better job of communicating. 15.03 percent daily gain, 20.36 percent week gain, and 15.98 percent month gain. Volume traded in the past 24 hours is $423.34 million at the time of writing.
This is where the part is not aligning. Readings of momentum should move a lot farther during a 20 percent week. The MACD line is showing the reading at -0.00928 and below its signal line at -0.01086. Histogram is positive with the minor positive figure of +0.00158. RSI14 is 51.90, and RSI21 is 50.22. This can’t be called a strong reading, as it’s more on the neutral side.
The move was followed by a month of consolidation
The thirty-day close is trying to point out a less dramatic side. May 19 closed at the value of $0.65. May 31 lifted the price to $0.74. June 3 brought back the asset’s price to $0.67. Following the month of June, June 6 saw the price fall to $0.62. June 16, the day before this move, finished the session at $0.65, slightly above the level where the month started.
Four weeks of unsuccessful attempts to maintain gains, moving inside roughly the same $0.62 to $0.74 range while not resolving anything, established the setup for whatever came next.
The two-week range got broken
Price consolidated inside a tight range of nearly two weeks, which is mostly concentrated between $0.60 and $0.66. The simple moving averages like SMA7 ($0.64), SMA30 ($0.66), and EMA30 ($0.66) are all consolidated within that range of prices, indicating that the moving averages remained in that band while price ceased movement for two weeks. The top of the consolidation was found around the price point of $0.654.
It all changed, then, with one move. Price just sliced through SMA7, EMA7, SMA30 and EMA30 in a single stroke, and that was a move that it usually takes a moving average a few days to make.
The high of the move stood at $0.794, a level that sits just below EMA200 at $0.80. And well short of the $0.819 high above. The price in the 1h time frame changed by -2.35 percent; this high printed in the window has already been sold off within it.
The context from Fibonacci levels
Swing low on the fib reads $0.59. Swing high is marked $0.78. The current price at $0.783 already sits past that marked high. Every retracement level between the two got cleared on the way through: 23.6 percent at $0.74, 38.2 percent at $0.71, 50 percent at $0.69, 61.8 percent at $0.66, and 78.6 percent at $0.63. None of them are live reference points anymore.
Now the thing that actually matters is positioned on top, not on the bottom, above the price itself. A 127.2 percent extension is standing at $0.83. A 161.8 percent extension comes to $0.90. A 200 percent extension comes to $0.97. The extension of 127.2 percent fits just below the $0.819 resistance and just a few cents over the 200 EMA.
Such a scenario usually only takes place with three separate indicators that fit together without very many dollars between them that will always turn out to be the decision point instead of a big round number over top of them.
Positioning tells the real story
Any traders who accumulated in the $0.60-$0.66 range already hold gains of more than 20 percent, while those who sold out during this two-week consolidation are close to certainly trapped and now have been forced to cover their short position, probably driving the massive push up until it rolled back off to $0.783 rather than to its highs.
This appears more of a short squeeze on liquidity sitting well above the range than anything backed by persistently strong buying pressure. Short-term buyers have additionally been dragged back down from the $0.794 highs after just a 1-hour drop so the trust in this up move is still thin.
However, traders looking for a significant move higher should now have their focus fixed on the $0.80-$0.819 zone, where the EMA200 and a massive resistance confluence meet. Breaking out of this zone on significant volume will mark a significant structural shift, while pumping into the zone briefly before being rejected will likely signal a pump-and-dump.
