Coinbase has urged the crypto industry to start preparing for the long-term risks of quantum computing, while stressing that digital assets face no immediate danger.
In a position paper released on Tuesday, the company’s Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain said a powerful enough quantum computer to break today’s cryptography will likely be built in the future, but such technology does not yet exist.
The main concern is the cryptography used to prove ownership of digital assets. The paper said the biggest future risk does not affect every part of a blockchain equally.
Instead, wallet-level digital signatures are seen as the most exposed area, since users rely on them to sign transactions.
If quantum computers become powerful enough, they could weaken some public-key cryptography used to protect crypto wallets and validator signatures.
What the paper says is at risk
The advisory board said Bitcoin’s core mining system, hash functions, and historical chain data are not meaningfully threatened by quantum computing in the same way wallet signatures are.
That means the biggest concern is not that Bitcoin suddenly stops working.
The bigger concern is that wallets with certain key information already visible onchain could become vulnerable in the future. The paper estimates that about 6.9 million Bitcoins fall into that exposed category.
The report also said proof-of-stake networks face an added layer of risk because validators rely on digital signatures to secure the chain.
As a result, some newer blockchains may need to upgrade both wallet protections and parts of their network security over time. The authors said post-quantum protection will be needed at both the consensus and execution layers, not just one part of the system.
Quantum computing is not an imminent crisis as presented in the paper. It claimed that the type of fault-tolerant machine required to crack popular cryptography is much more sophisticated than anything currently in existence.
The authors indicated a probable timeline of at least 10 years, although they indicated that a quicker breakthrough cannot be excluded.
They further added that the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has proposed to accomplish post-quantum migration by 2035.
Quantum-resistant upgrades could be slow and costly
A major point in the paper is that solutions already exist, but putting them into use across crypto networks will be difficult. The idea of post-quantum cryptography has been under research for many years, and already NIST has standardized a number of new schemes.
So the problem is not a lack of ideas. The harder part is upgrading wallets, exchanges, custodians, hardware systems, and blockchains in a coordinated way.
The report said quantum-resistant signatures are much bigger than the ones blockchains use today. That could make transactions heavier, increase costs, and add more pressure on storage.
There is also no one central authority on a blockchain network that can make everyone upgrade at the same time. Users would have to update wallets, move funds, or shift to new address formats on their own, and that process could take a long time.
The paper also pointed to another challenge, as some coins sit in wallets that may never move to safer protection because they are lost, inactive, or abandoned.
According to the council, each blockchain will need its own answer on whether to leave those funds untouched, lock them, or take action under set rules. They said the debate should start early, before uncertainty turns into a bigger market worry.
Coinbase says quantum progress remains uneven across blockchains
Coinbase’s advisory board said major blockchains are already looking at quantum protection, but progress is uneven.
Bitcoin is discussing safer address formats, though it still has no full migration plan. Ethereum appears further ahead with a clearer path for upgrades.
The paper also said Solana, Algorand, and Aptos are either rolling out or planning quantum-resistant features, while some Layer 2 networks, including Optimism, have already set transition timelines.
The firm also mentioned that it is developing systems capable of supporting new cryptographic standards more quickly and is also collaborating with hardware and infrastructural partners to be ready to upgrade in the future.
It said quantum readiness will need a wider industry effort, not just one company acting alone.
That concern has also been echoed by Google Research. In March, Google’s Quantum AI division published a white paper saying quantum computers could break Bitcoin-era encryption sooner than many in the crypto industry expected.