Crypto market inched up on Tuesday, led by Bitcoin reclaiming key levels and Ethereum staging a price rise to monthly highs amid rising hopes of the U.S.-Iran conflict seeing the end of tunnel soon.
Investors across larger financial markets are waiting to see whether the United States and Iran will agree to hold a second round of talks as the two-week ceasefire nears its end. The decision currently holds high importance from an economic standpoint, given it can impact energy markets and signal whether tensions will calm down or escalate again.
Dean Chen, analyst at Bitunix exchange explains, “Trump is compressing the ceasefire window while maintaining the Strait of Hormuz blockade as a bargaining lever, effectively turning energy supply risk into a negotiation tool. Meanwhile, internal divisions within Iran hinder a unified stance, making a coherent near-term path unlikely. Geopolitical risk thus evolves from a discrete event into a persistent expectation variable.”
Bitcoin’s price stood at $76,158.41, up 1.3 percent at the press time. The OG-crypto also saw $238 million in inflows for spot ETFs on Monday, marking a fifth straight day of positive trading.
For the short term, a rise in institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs can trigger a tailwind that might support BTC’s rebound toward the psychologically significant $80,000 mark.
Dean Chen also highlights another important factor that can influence Bitcoin’s price movements. He highlights, “If conflict escalates and energy-driven inflation persists, the Fed will be forced to maintain higher rates, strengthening the USD and turning BTC’s overhead liquidity ($77K-$78K) into a likely bull trap zone. Conversely, if negotiations progress and Hormuz reopens, easing inflation expectations, the market can reprice the rate path toward cuts, weakening the dollar and allowing BTC to break and extend above upper liquidity clusters.”
Ether, the second biggest crypto by market capitalization, doubled down on its recovery attempt, aiming to reclaim its monthly high of $2,465. In the meantime, Ripple (XRP) has shown resilient trading as well, maintaining advances for the second day in a row and remaining above the $1.42 support level.
The biggest gainers for the day included TRUMP MAGA ($MAGA), LayerX ($LX), and [Fake]COINBASE ($COIN). Leading the pack was TRUMP MAGA ($MAGA), which recorded a sharp 467 percent spike, pushing its price up to $0.01063 in a standout rally.
However, bucking the optimistic trend, the crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 33 on Tuesday, showing that investors are still feeling uneasy, but the mood is slowly starting to improve.
Another important parameter that is splurging its impact on the digital asset sector is the Dollar Index.
Bitunix analysts explain that DXY has pulled back from its rebound high (~100.5) and is consolidating around 98, indicating short-term weakness. However, the 97.4–97.0 zone remains a clear demand area.
This means that the market hasn’t fully switched to risk-on mode; instead, it’s reevaluating whether the dollar still has its safe-haven and carry advantages. In other words, the USD isn’t in a bearish trend; it’s in a pricing divergence phase, limited by policy uncertainty and easing expectations but supported by war risk and inflation dynamics.
“The dollar structure directly affects how the crypto market behaves. BTC is currently moving around the $76K area, with $72.5K acting as a key downside absorption zone, still a liquidity redistribution range. The dollar’s non-trending but high-volatility profile makes false breakouts and liquidity sweeps in BTC more likely, rather than allowing for sustained directional moves,” they add.
In the last 24 hours, 107,219 dealers have been liquidated, totalling $252.18 million. Bitget – BTCUSDT_UMCBL received the greatest single liquidation order, worth $7.59 million.
The total market capitalization also stands at $2.56 trillion, showing modest gains of 0.56 percent.