Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back to levels last seen in late January, with fresh on-chain data drawing attention to the activity of large holders. The update came as BTC traded near $78,300, while the broader crypto market posted a 15 percent gain in April.
Meanwhile, the data has raised a key question for the market: whether whale accumulation is setting up the next Bitcoin rally. Analysts tracking risk, exchange flows, and realized cap trends say several signals now point to a possible recovery phase.
Whale accumulation grows
Santiment said Bitcoin’s larger holders have been adding to positions at a time when smaller wallets have stayed mostly quiet.
According to the platform, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated 40,967 BTC in the past two weeks, equal to about 0.3 percent growth. Wallets with less than 0.01 BTC added only 46 BTC, or 0.1 percent, over the same period.
The contrast points to a market where larger investors are acting more aggressively than retail participants. Santiment said that, “Ideally, these key stakeholders continue to accumulate, and retail begins to take profit.”
Consequently, the firm added that such a setup has often been linked to long-term upside. The reading does not confirm a breakout on its own, but it shows that larger wallets are increasing exposure while the market remains below previous highs.
On-chain data points to a bottom
Ali Martinez, a widely followed analyst, pointed to three on-chain signals that may support the case for a Bitcoin bottom. The first was the Sharpe Ratio, which measures return relative to risk.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio dropped to -43 during a recent risk-off phase but later recovered to about 20.35. That move suggests that the market may be moving away from extreme uncertainty.
The second signal came from supply concentration. Ali said the percentage of realized cap held by buyers from the last month has fallen below 7 percent.
In addition, the analyst described that level as a historic marker tied to weak retail activity and lower short-term speculation. In that setting, more of the network’s value sits with holders who have kept positions longer, which can reduce immediate sell pressure.
The third signal was the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse, which tracks Bitcoin moving between spot and derivatives exchanges. Current data showed Bitcoin shifting toward derivatives platforms.
Ali Martinez said that pattern can reflect rising trader confidence, since investors often use BTC on derivatives venues as collateral for long positions.
The analyst also pointed to the MVRV pricing bands for direction. Bitcoin has reclaimed the -0.5 MVRV band near $73,700, which now stands as the main support level in this setup.
“As long as $73,700 holds as support, the objective is a return to the mean, currently around $96,000,” Ali said.
The analyst added that a loss of that level could weaken the recovery case and open the door to a move toward the realized price near $55,000.
Bitcoin tests key breakout zone
Bitcoin was priced at around $77,700 at the time of writing, with 24-hour trading volume at $43.05 billion. That left the asset down over 1 percent on the day but up nearly 5 percent in the last seven days. On April 22, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $79,500, its highest level since late January, before pulling back.
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin is now trying to move back above the bull market support band on the weekly chart.
“Eyes on the weekly close this weekend, as it will be an important one,” the analyst wrote.
According to the chart view, Bitcoin has not traded above that support band since October 2025, which gives the current test added weight.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has regained its February-March decline and is currently on the verge of the $77,000 to $78,400 range. The asset has also remained above the weekly 200 EMA of around $68,450 and the weekly 200 MA of around $60,200.
A weekly close above the support band would mark Bitcoin’s first clear move back over that area in months.
Notably, Bitcoin’s recent rebound was linked in part to a brief easing in geopolitical risk. The move above $79,500 on April 22 came after an extended ceasefire in the Middle East helped lift risk appetite across markets. That supported a short burst of strength in Bitcoin and other crypto assets.